The Teranet-National Bank composite index fell 0.4% from February to March, marking a third consecutive monthly decline and a sharper contraction than in previous months. This comes at a time when the resale market continues to slow, due in particular to uncertainty surrounding the trade war with the United States. As a result, prices have declined by 0.7% since December 2024, with a more pronounced decline for condominiums (-1.2%) and a slightly less significant decline for other types of housing (-0.3%). Although the real estate market has slowed in all provinces, the magnitude of this decline in activity is particularly noticeable in Ontario and, to a lesser extent, in British Columbia, the two least affordable markets in the country. Furthermore, the weakness in the Ontario housing market is not limited to a few markets, but is a broader issue, as 81% of the CMAs in this province (13 out of 16) covered by our price indices experienced declines from February to March, compared to only 40% for other markets outside Ontario. It should also be noted that more affordable real estate markets are faring better. This is particularly true in Quebec, where the four CMAs covered by our indices are among the top five in the country in terms of annual price growth (Sudbury completing the list), with increases ranging from 9.7% in Montreal to 18.3% in Trois-Rivières compared to March 2024. In a context of ongoing economic uncertainty, moderate population growth and the risk that long-term interest rates will remain higher for longer than expected, home prices are likely to remain under pressure in the coming months.

Month-Over-Month

The Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™, which covers the country’s eleven largest CMAs, decreased by 0.4% from February to March, marking the third consecutive monthly decline. In March, four of the 11 CMAs included in the index experienced decreases: Halifax (-1.9%), Toronto (-1.2%), Hamilton (-0.8%), and Ottawa-Gatineau (-0.4%). Conversely, prices increased in Victoria (+2.2%), Winnipeg (+1.6%), Edmonton (+0.6%), Quebec City (+0.5%), Calgary (+0.4%), and Montreal (+0.2%), while they remained stable in Vancouver. Additionally, a decline was observed in fifteen of the 20 CMAs not included in the composite index for which data were available in March. The largest monthly decreases were observed in Saint John (-6.6% after a 9.8% increase the previous month), St. Catharines (-5.5%), and Abbotsford-Mission (-4.1%). Conversely, the largest increases occurred in Thunder Bay (+3.3%), Sherbrooke (+3.0%), and Kingston (+2.6%).

Before seasonal adjustments, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™ increased by 1.0% from February to March.

Year-Over-Year

The Teranet-National Bank Composite Home Price Index™ increased by 2.3% from March 2024 to March 2025, a smaller growth than the 2.9% observed the previous month. In March, price increases were observed in ten of the 11 cities forming the composite index, with Toronto (-1.2%) being the exception. Quebec City led the way with price increases of 12.7% over twelve months, followed by Montreal with a gain of 9.7% and Halifax with growth of 8.8%. Regarding the 20 other CMAs not included in the composite index, annual gains were observed in thirteen of them. Among the rising markets, the strongest growths were recorded in Trois-Rivières (+18.3%), Sherbrooke (+12.6%), and Sudbury (+9.7%). Conversely, the largest declines occurred in Brantford (-8.1%), Oshawa (-3.7%), and St. Catharines (-2.8%).

Click here to view the full report.

Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ Continues to Decline in March