The Teranet-National Bank composite index fell by 0.8% from June to July, the sixth consecutive monthly decline. As a result, prices have fallen by 5.0% since January. This comes against a backdrop where the resale market continues to be particularly weak, due in particular to the uncertainty surrounding the trade war with the United States. Although the number of transactions on the resale market has risen over the past four months, market conditions across the country have eased considerably and now indicate a balanced market after being tighter than average. However, this turnaround is mainly due to market conditions now strongly in favour of buyers in Ontario and British Columbia, which is having the effect of driving prices down, particularly in these two provinces with their persistent affordability challenges. As a result, prices are down on an annual basis by 6.7% in Toronto and 4.1% in Vancouver, highlighting the amplifying effect of affordability conditions in the current weak environment. Conversely, Quebec stands out, with Montreal and Quebec City experiencing the highest price increases among the eleven cities included in the composite index, but also with the strongest increases in other cities not included in the composite index, with double-digit annual growth in Trois-Rivières and Sherbrooke. Against a backdrop of persistent economic uncertainty, moderating population growth and the risk of long-term interest rates remaining high, home prices are likely to remain under pressure over the coming months, even if the resale market may regain some strength. Indeed, the backlog of properties for sale will continue to weigh on prices over the coming months.

MONTH-OVER-MONTH

The Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price IndexTM, which covers the country’s eleven largest CMAs, decreased by 0.8% from June to July, the sixth consecutive monthly decline. In July, seven of the 11 CMAs included in the index experienced decreases: Hamilton (-2.5%), Winnipeg (-1.2%), Toronto (-1.1%), Vancouver (-0.7%), Calgary (-0.5%), Montreal (-0.5%) and Edmonton (-0.1%). Conversely, prices rose in Quebec City (+1.3%), Ottawa-Gatineau (+0.3%) and Victoria (+0.1%), while they remained stable in Halifax. On the other hand, 14 of the 20 CMAs not included in the composite index for which data are available in July recorded a decrease. The biggest monthly declines were in Guelph (-5.9%) and Saint John (-5.0%). Conversely, the biggest increases were in Thunder Bay (+2.8% after -2.1% the previous month) and Kingston (+2.4%).

Before seasonal adjustments, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price IndexTM fell by 0.5% from June to July.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR

The Teranet-National Bank Composite Home Price IndexTM fell by 2.6% from July 2024 to July 2025, a larger decline than the previous month. However, increases were observed in eight of the 11 cities making up the composite index in July. Quebec City led the way with year-on-year price increases of 16.9%, followed by Montreal with a 6.9% gain and Edmonton with a 5.3% increase. Conversely, declines were observed in Toronto (-7.5%), Hamilton (-7.1%) and Vancouver (-4.3%). As for the other 20 CMAs not included in the composite index, annual decreases were observed in ten of them. Among declining markets, the sharpest decreases were recorded in Oshawa (-7.2%), Guelph (-6.8%), and Kitchener (-5.3%). Conversely, the biggest increases were in Sherbrooke (+10.5%), Trois-Rivières (+10.3%) and Thunder Bay (+8.0%).

Teranet-National Bank House Price Index Down for Sixth Consecutive Month in July by Daren King | Economist | National Bank of Canada