The BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) fell 0.3 points to 152.4 in the second quarter of 2025, while the six-month moving average rose to 152.5. Compared to the same quarter in 2024, the index was up 2.9%.

Second Quarter Highlights :

• The economic activity index fell in Q2 by 0.9 points. Contraction in this index was driven by lower inflation-adjusted wholesale trade (-5.1%) and manufacturing sales (-4.5%), which offset growth from retail sales (2.0%).

• The overall employment component increased by 0.5 points in the second quarter. Growth in office employment (2.3%) offset a modest fall in manufacturing employment (-0.5%), suggesting a steady level of job creation through the first half of the year.

• The financial component of the index increased in the second quarter by 0.3 points. Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) prices rose by 6.4%, pushing the component up. Additionally, interest rate spreads remained virtually unchanged from the previous quarter, indicating a similar level of short-term risk in the economy.

Click here to view the full report.

Commercial Leading Indicator Shows Resilient Commercial Activity in The Second Quarter of 2025 by Amit Sidhu | Economist | BCREA