After contracting for the previous seven months, the Teranet- National Bank composite index put an end to this downward sequence with an increase of 0.4% in August. This growth comes against a backdrop in which the number of transactions on the resale market continued to rise for a fifth consecutive month in August (top chart). In particular, the very soft market conditions observed in Ontario tightened somewhat with the recent pick-up in transactions, allowing prices to rise during the month in Toronto, Hamilton and Ottawa-Gatineau. Despite this growth in August, the composite index still remains 4.6% below its December level, with declines over this period of 7.9% in Toronto, 7.4% in Hamilton and 1.5% in Ottawa-Gatineau. Market conditions also eased significantly in British Columbia, with Vancouver and Victoria posting declines of 7.1% and 0.4% respectively. Against the backdrop of the current trade dispute, market resilience has depended on differing levels of affordability. Indeed, the markets with the highest affordability challenges saw the sharpest declines, as the financial risk of such a large real estate transaction was amplified by economic uncertainty (bottom chart). Although the composite index returned to growth in August, it is still too early to say whether this trend will continue in the months ahead, despite the expected cuts in the Bank of Canada’s policy rate. Continuing uncertainty, moderating population growth, the risk of persistently high long-term interest rates, and a potentially further deterioration in the labour market will continue to weigh on the housing market.

MONTH-OVER-MONTH

The Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™, which covers the country’s eleven largest CMAs, rose by a seasonally adjusted 0.4% from July to August, the first increase following seven consecutive monthly declines. In August, five of the 11 CMAs included in the index posted increases: Winnipeg (+1.5%), Hamilton (+1.3%), Toronto (+1.2%), Ottawa-Gatineau (+0.5%) and Halifax (+0.3%). Conversely, prices fell in Quebec City (-0.7%), Montreal (-0.7%), Vancouver (-0.5%), Calgary (-0.3%), Edmonton (-0.2%), and Victoria (-0.2%). On the other hand, fourteen of the 20 CMAs not included in the composite index for which data are available in August recorded increases. The strongest monthly gains were seen in Lethbridge (+4.5%), Guelph (+2.9% after -5.7% the previous month), Saint John (+2.9% after -4.7% the previous month) and Windsor (+2.9%). Conversely, the biggest declines were in Moncton (-2.7%) and Kelowna (-2.4%).

Before seasonal adjustments, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™ fell by 0.2% from July to August, the fourth decline in five months.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR

The Teranet-National Bank Composite Home Price Index™ fell by 2.5% from August 2024 to August 2025, slightly less than the 2.6% decline observed the previous month. However, increases were observed in eight of the 11 cities making up the composite index in August. Quebec City led the way with 12.4% year-on-year price increases, followed by Winnipeg with a 6.6% gain and Edmonton with a 6.4% increase. Conversely, declines were observed in Toronto (-6.3%), Vancouver (-5.4%) and Hamilton (-4.7%). As for the other 20 CMAs not included in the composite index, annual decreases were observed in thirteen of them. Among declining markets, the sharpest decreases were recorded in Oshawa (-5.3%), Guelph (-4.6%) and Kitchener (-4.4%). Conversely, the biggest increases were in Lethbridge (+11.6%), Trois-Rivières (+10.5%) and Saint John (+9.2%).

Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ Up for The First Time in Eight Months by Daren King | Economist | National Bank of Canada

Home Prices Rise in August for The First Time in Eight Months by Daren King | Economist | National Bank of Canada