The Teranet-National Bank Composite Index continued to rise in September, posting a modest increase of 0.2% for the second consecutive month, following a period of price contraction from January to July. This growth comes as the number of transactions in the resale market has increased in recent months, against a backdrop of improved consumer confidence, despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding the trade dispute with the United States. While the increase in prices in the previous month was due to a rebound in Ontario markets, where particularly soft market conditions have tightened recently, the increase in September was driven by significant gains in Montreal and Quebec City, two markets where resale activity remains very high. It should be noted, however, that despite the slight increase in prices over the past two months, the composite index is still down 2.6% from September 2024, with significant declines in Toronto (-6.9%) and Vancouver (-5.0%), as well as Victoria (-0.7%) and Hamilton (-2.7%) to a lesser extent. Against the backdrop of the current trade dispute, market resilience has depended on
differing levels of affordability. Indeed, the markets with the highest affordability challenges saw the sharpest declines, as the financial risk of such a large real estate transaction was amplified by economic uncertainty. While the composite index maintained its upward trend in September, market conditions, which remain soft in Ontario and British Columbia, are expected to limit price growth in the coming months, despite support from Bank of Canada policy rate cuts. Although prices may continue to rise in the coming months, the persistent climate of uncertainty, moderating population growth, the risk of long-term interest rates remaining high, and the ongoing deterioration of the labour market are all factors that will continue to weigh on the residential market.

MONTH-OVER-MONTH

The Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™, which covers the country’s eleven largest CMAs, rose 0.2% from August to September after seasonal adjustment, marking the second consecutive monthly increase after seven declines. In September, six of the 11 CMAs included in the index saw increases: Montreal (+2.4% after -0.8% the previous month), Quebec City (+1.3% after -0.6% the previous month), Hamilton (+1.3%), Halifax (+1.1%), Vancouver (+0.1%), and Ottawa-Gatineau (+0.1%). Conversely, prices declined in Winnipeg (-1.2% after +1.5% the previous month), Calgary (-0.8%), Toronto (-0.3%), and Edmonton (-0.1%), while prices remained stable in Victoria. Furthermore, increases were observed in nine of the 20 CMAs not included in the composite index for which data are available in September. The largest monthly increases were observed in Thunder Bay (+4.0%), Kingston (+2.4% after -2.1% the previous month) and Oshawa (+1.3%). Conversely, the largest declines occurred in Abbotsford-Mission (-2.5%) and Brantford (-1.9%).

Before seasonal adjustments, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™ actually declined by 1.5% from August to September, marking the fifth decline in six months.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR

The Teranet-National Bank Composite Home Price Index™ fell by 2.6% from September 2024 to September 2025, a slightly larger decline than the 2.5% drop seen the previous month. However, increases were observed in seven of the 11 cities that make up the composite index in September. Quebec City led the way with price increases of 14.4% over twelve months, followed by Montreal with a gain of 6.2% and Edmonton with growth of 5.1%. Conversely, the largest declines were observed in Toronto (-6.9%), Vancouver (-5.0%) and Hamilton (-2.7%). Of the 20 other CMAs not included in the composite index, fourteen saw annual declines. Among the declining markets, the sharpest decreases were recorded in Abbotsford-Mission (-8.7%), Guelph (-5.5%), and St. Catharines (-5.4%). Conversely, the largest increases occurred in Thunder Bay (+11.5%), Lethbridge (+11.2%), and Sudbury (+7.5%).

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Home Prices Continue Their Moderate Growth in September

Teranet-National Bank House Price Index Continues to Rise in September by Daren King | Economist Teranet-National Bank of Canada