Affordability is quietly improving in this country. Home prices have flattened in many parts of Canada, and in our most expensive markets, they have even pulled back.

Mortgage rates have stabilized to a level that supports healthy activity. And, after years of scarcity, more homes are finally coming onto the market.

So why are so many Canadians still on the sidelines?

The past four years delivered an unrelenting supply of uncertainty. First, high rates. Then political drama and global trade tension. It left many people conditioned to wait for the next shoe to drop. That instinct is understandable. But, the data tells a very different story: Canada’s housing market is moving forward again – quietly, steadily, step by step.

Our frontline Realtors share their stories with me. They tell me confident young families are back, saying the time is right. The reset is behind us. Now we build.

The Affordability Shift

Borrowing costs are no longer the villain in this story.

After almost two decades of ultra-low borrowing costs, the return to more normal mortgage rates can feel jarring. You are forgiven if you’re relatively new to the business and believe sub-three per cent mortgages are typical. They are not. Those rates were born out of crisis – first, the 2008 collapse of the American financial system, and more recently, the extraordinary global disruption caused by the COVID pandemic.

The Bank of Canada has reduced rates nine times since 2023’s pandemic-driven peak inflation. Mortgage rates are now both the new and the old normal – healthy, sustainable rates that align with a balanced economy.

Our early 2025 consumer research showed 29 per cent of consumers eager to buy a home were waiting for rates to drop. This fall, our central bank has been clear: they will not stimulate demand through monetary policy and risk a rebound in inflation. The very strong employment performance that closed 2025 hammered that point home.

With popular fixed mortgages in the three-to-four per cent range, buyers can now move forward without worrying that cheaper money is coming next week. That clarity alone has begun to unlock demand.

The Reset Takes Hold

Royal LePage’s latest Market Survey Forecast projects very modest price gains and more significant improvements in sales activity through 2026, as buyers continue to move off the sidelines. Nationally, we expect the aggregate price of a home in Canada to rise just one per cent year over year.

Detached homes are forecast to see prices increase two per cent, while condominium values are expected to decline 2.5 per cent as sharply lower immigration, temporary foreign worker and foreign student numbers reduce the size of the renter base, which means the return of investor-buyers will be slower.

Regionally, the picture is mixed, as it always is in our vast country. And that’s healthy. In Calgary, Edmonton, Regina, Winnipeg, Ottawa and Halifax, home prices are expected to continue to post small incremental gains. Affordability remains a competitive advantage in these cities, supporting stable demand.

Meanwhile, Greater Montreal is forecast to see gains of five per cent, and Quebec City remains the standout performer in the country, with prices projected to rise 12 per cent next year on the strength of major public works projects and limited supply.

Home values in the premium-priced markets of Greater Toronto and Vancouver are expected to decrease by single digits, creating a rare opportunity for buyers of Canada’s most costly homes.

For first-time buyers, historically the toughest places in the country to break into the market, the current environment represents a rare window. Less competition. More inventory. Better negotiating conditions. Stable home values.

These don’t look like the headlines of a crisis. They look like an opportunity.

Housing Supply : We Can’t Back Off Now

Years of under-building got us into this affordability challenge, and only building can get us out of it. There has been real progress: CMHC reported that housing starts in Canada’s largest markets reached record highs in 2025, as municipalities embraced favourable zoning policies and politicians woke up to the supply challenge.

Yet, it hasn’t been uniform. Toronto and Vancouver are seeing steep declines in pre-construction sales, leading to major project delays and cancellations. The issue will resolve itself in due course. I am not worried about the economic future of these vibrant, world-class cities.

Here is the important message surrounding our national housing stock: we can’t ease up simply because home price inflation isn’t making headlines today.

Canada still has a structural shortage of homes. It will take years of disciplined building to correct it. And, building the right kinds of homes matters just as much as building more. Duplexes, triplexes and row homes offer the mix of space, density and affordability that Canadians are urgently looking for, without creating urban sprawl.

Edmonton and Calgary are great examples of what is possible. That’s the direction Canada needs to keep driving toward– a housing system built for the future, not just the next market cycle.

Political Stability Clears The Path for Action

After a turbulent political cycle, Canadians are signalling renewed confidence in our federal leadership. That stability matters. It opens the door for long-needed reforms to move from promise to progress.

The Build Canada Homes initiative is a serious step – but execution will determine its success. Public land; factory-built housing; faster approvals; smart infrastructure.

The market has done its part. Now, governments at all levels must do theirs – with speed, not slogans.

A Call to Confidence

Canadians have earned a reprieve from the cycle of home prices that continuously outstripped wages and salaries. Our research shows that Millennials and Generation Z consumers embrace the same strong desire for home ownership as their parents.

For many, the path forward is now clearer. And the smart move isn’t to wait – it is to act on the opportunities that exist today. Real estate rarely rewards hesitation; it rewards participation.

The math makes sense again. Affordability has improved. Competition has cooled. Inventory is growing. Prices are stable. Rates are stable. These are not caution signs – they are green lights. A steady, sustainable recovery is underway, and those who step forward early will benefit most.

Soper : Today’s Housing Math Works. Buyers Need to Believe It by Phil Soper | Real Estate Magazine