The Teranet-National Bank composite index continued to rise in November, posting a fourth consecutive monthly increase, up 0.4%, after a period of contraction during the first seven months of the year. This increase comes as the number of transactions in the resale market has risen in recent months as uncertainty surrounding the trade dispute with the United States has eased. In addition, improved affordability, due to more favourable fixed and variable interest rates and resilient household incomes, has supported price growth in some regions. This is particularly true in Quebec markets, which are more affordable than the national average and have experienced the highest annual price growth. Conversely, persistent affordability challenges in Toronto, Hamilton, and Vancouver continue to weigh on prices in an increasingly unfavorable demographic context. Although the composite index maintained its upward trend in November, continued market weakness in Ontario and British Columbia is expected to limit price increases at the national level in the short term. Recent cuts to the Bank of Canada’s policy rates have provided some relief, but 5-year mortgage rates could start to rise again in 2026 if our scenario of economic improvement materializes. Combined with population growth that is expected to moderate further, these factors could continue to weigh on the outlook for the residential market.

Month-Over-Month

The Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™, which covers the country’s eleven largest CMAs, rose 0.4% from October to November after seasonal adjustment, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase after seven declines. In November, six of the 11 CMAs included in the index recorded increases: Halifax (+1.3% after -1.2% the previous month), Montreal (+1.2%), Toronto (+0.6%), Calgary (+0.3%), Victoria (+0.2%), and Vancouver (+0.1%). Conversely, prices declined in Ottawa-Gatineau (-0.7% after +1.4% the previous month), Edmonton (-0.4%), and Quebec City (-0.2% after +2.5% the previous month), while they remained unchanged in Hamilton and Winnipeg. In addition, increases were observed in eight of the 20 CMAs not included in the composite index for which data are available in November. The largest monthly increases were recorded in Oshawa (+2.1% after -1.8% the previous month) and Abbotsford-Mission (+1.0%). Conversely, the largest decreases were observed in Thunder Bay (-3.4% after +2.8% the previous month), St. Catharines (-2.5% after +1.1% the previous month), and Kelowna (-2.0% after +2.6% the previous month).

Before seasonal adjustments, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™ actually declined by 0.1% from October to November, marking the seventh decline in eight months.

Year-Over-Year

The Teranet-National Bank Composite Home Price Index™ fell by 2.8% between November 2024 and November 2025, a steeper decline than the 2.6% decline observed the previous month. However, increases were recorded in eight of the 11 cities that make up the composite index in November. Quebec City led the way with a 12.7% increase in prices over 12 months, followed by Montreal (+5.4%) and Edmonton (+5.3%). Conversely, the sharpest declines were observed in Toronto (-6.6%), Hamilton (-5.5%) and Vancouver (-5.3%). Of the 20 other CMAs not included in the composite index, 13 posted annual declines. Among the declining markets, the sharpest declines were recorded in St. Catharines (-7.1%), Barrie (-6.2%) and Brantford (-5.3%). Conversely, the largest increases were observed in Trois-Rivières (+9.8%), Lethbridge (+8.9%) and Saint John (+8.2%).

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Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ Continues to Rise in November by Daren King | Economist | National Bank of Canada