A Vancouver real estate firm is predicting a small bump in transactions in 2026 after a period of slumping sales.

This year could see around 38,000 total sales in the region, according to a January 2026 forecast by Rennie & Associates Realty Ltd.

This would be a reversal of the downward trend observed since the 2021 peak of 70,619 sales. There were 43,530 sales in 2022, 40,026 sales in 2023, 40,203 in 2024 and 35,236 sales in 2025, according to data provided by Rennie.

The data encompasses the Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley real estate boards—essentially the area from Pemberton to Abbotsford representing about 50% of the total market in BC.

Greg Zayadi, Rennie’s president, said 2021 was the best year on record by a long shot. Four years later, the market saw just half the amount of transactions.

“Now, 71,000 was not normal by the way, 35,000 is not normal, so to me the big question starts to become, what is the new normal?” he said.

He said he expects “more of the same” in 2026 as many North American markets, not just Vancouver, suffer from an affordability crisis, a cost-of-delivery crisis and socioeconomic, policy and government problems.

He said it’s unlikely Vancouver will go back to 50,000 or 60,000 transactions per year. Transactions could potentially hover around the 40,000 mark for the next two years.

Christopher Heschl, principal economist with the Conference Board of Canada, said there are low sales amid high listings due to a price mismatch between what sellers are looking for and what buyers are willing to pay.

Lower mortgage rates could entice some buyers this year, but this will be tempered by lower population growth that restricts job gains, he said.

Vancouver could actually see its first-ever population decline in 2026, limiting demand for housing, said a Jan. 8 report by the Conference Board.

Persistent trade uncertainty will also keep markets cooler even if consumer confidence improves in anticipation of a US trade deal later this year, Heschl said.

“One of the biggest unknowns would have to be, if a trade deal isn’t reached, what happens then?” he said. “If [the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement, or CUSMA] goes under and if there’s nothing significant to replace it, then that’s a significant downside risk to the forecast.”

In the meantime, BC developers are diversifying their businesses due to the challenges of building and delivering homes today, said Rennie’s Zayadi.

Instead of acquiring land, some are buying and holding income rental properties and looking for other ways to add value, he said.

“Most of the regulars that we all talk to and that we all work with, they will no longer call themselves ‘developers.’ They will say they’re ‘in real estate,’” he said.

Vancouver is now entering the fifth calendar year of a slower market cycle, Zayadi wrote in a recent LinkedIn post.

His other predictions for 2026 include inventory averaging around 23,000 and peaking above 28,000, over 90,000 new listings, a 5% reduction in per-square-foot rental rates, and 16,000 market rental homes under construction following the 5,000 completions in 2025.

Most new projects will likely be smaller wood-frame developments with fewer than 150 units, he wrote.

Rennie : 2026 Could See Uptick in Real Estate Sales in Vancouver Region by Jami Makan | BIV