Canada’s housing market remained in a holding pattern in February 2026, with national home sales dipping 1.3% month-over-month, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity came in 8.1% below February 2025 levels. The national average residential sale price was $663,828, essentially flat (−0.2%) compared to last year. New residential listings fell 3.9% month-over-month from January, reversing the previous month’s gains and leaving fewer fresh options for buyers heading into the spring market.

A Balanced Market in Waiting : What The Numbers and Experts are Saying

Nationally, the market is balanced but subdued. New residential listings fell 3.8% year-over-year, from 67,098 to 64,531, pushing the sales-to-new listings ratio up to 47.6% from 46.4% in January. The long-term average for that measure is 54.8%, with readings between roughly 45% and 65% generally consistent with balanced conditions. At the end of February, there were 151,850 properties listed for sale across all Canadian MLS Systems, up 3.7% from a year ago but still 12.3% below the long-term average. Months of inventory sat at five months nationally, unchanged from January and right in line with the long-term average.

“February saw a continuation of the quieter levels of activity recorded in January, although there was some indication things were starting to pick up speed toward the end of the month,” said CREA’s Senior Economist Shaun Cathcart. “2026 is still ultimately expected to be a story about pent-up first-time buyer demand finally seeing a chance to enter the market. They’ve had to wait a long time for mortgage rates to find a bottom, but some will no doubt continue to hold off for a bottom in prices in some Ontario and British Columbia markets.”

CREA Chair Valérie Paquin also shares an optimistic outlook. “The main event never really gets going until around April, so there’s still time to get ready to buy or sell this year,” she said.

Price Corrections Deepen Across Ontario and BC as Buyers Hold Out for Better Deals

Southern Ontario continues to be the softest part of the country. Fewer sellers are listing their homes; Greater Toronto saw 17.7% fewer new residential listings than a year ago, and markets like Niagara Region, Hamilton-Burlington, and Kitchener-Waterloo all saw double-digit drops as well. Prices are following the same pattern. The average home in Greater Toronto now costs $1,008,968, which is 7.1% less than it was last February. Niagara Region is down 6.2% to $634,594, London and St. Thomas fell 3.5% to $622,782, and Kitchener-Waterloo slipped 2.8% to $756,830. The takeaway? Buyers across Southern Ontario are in no rush. Many seem to be holding out, betting that prices still have further to fall.

In BC, Fraser Valley led the pullback with a 9.2% annual drop in the average price to $925,565. Greater Vancouver’s average price edged down 1.5% to $1,207,977, while Victoria moved in the opposite direction, up 4.1% to $1,022,183.

As Canada’s two most expensive and highest-volume markets, Greater Toronto and Greater Vancouver continue to have an outsized pull on national averages. The national average price of $663,828 is currently being suppressed by the outsized influence of Canada’s two largest markets. Excluding these high-volume centres, the rest of the country reveals a far more resilient market, as regions like Quebec and the Prairies continue to trend upward.

Affordable Markets Keep Heating Up

Quebec’s housing markets were once again the standout performers. Saguenay CMA posted a 48.9% year-over-year jump in residential new listings, Gatineau CMA rose 24.6%, Quebec CMA climbed 20.7%, and Montreal CMA gained 13.5%. Price gains were equally strong: Sherbrooke CMA surged 16.3% to $545,255, Quebec CMA rose 12.3% to $505,573, and Montreal CMA posted a 5.1% increase to $660,110. These markets continue to attract buyers seeking affordability outside Ontario and BC.

Edmonton led Alberta with a 10.6% jump in new listings and a 2.5% price increase to $451,459, keeping it roughly $212,000 below the national average and making it one of Canada’s most affordable major cities. Meanwhile, Calgary’s market was quieter, with listings remaining flat and prices rising a modest 1.1% to $633,181.

Thunder Bay’s 25% Y-O-Y Price Jump

Thunder Bay quietly posted the country’s strongest year-over-year residential price gain at 25.0%, with the average climbing from $308,869 to $385,967. Smaller transaction volumes can amplify swings, but the trend reflects growing interest in markets where buyers can still find homes under $400,000.

What to Watch For Next

February’s numbers suggest a market in waiting. Mortgage rates appear to be finding a floor, pent-up demand is building among first-time buyers, and the spring market (which typically kicks into gear in April) will be the real test of whether 2026 shapes up as the recovery year many are anticipating.

For buyers, balanced conditions and a five-month national inventory mean there is still time and choice, especially in Ontario and B.C., where prices continue to soften. For sellers, patience may be required in those markets, while those in Quebec and parts of Alberta are operating in a much stronger environment heading into the spring.

Wondering what this means for your local market?

CREA : Canada’s Housing Market Still in Hibernation as Buyers Wait Out The Winter by Angela Serednicki | zoocasa