With the decline of the average BC home sale price seeming to flatten out in the latest monthly figures, the BC Real Estate Association is now forecasting that the average sale price over the year will be $697,000, down 2.2% compared with 2018.

As consumer demand recovers, the average sale price of a home across the province will then rise 4.2% year over year in 2020, to $726,000, the association predicted June 18.

At 71,400 units, total home sales across BC are expected to be 9% lower in 2019 than in 2018, but are forecast to more than recover that amount in 2020. BCREA predicted there will be 81,400 sales in 2020, a year-over-year rise of 14.4%.

However, this would still be below the 10-year average for MLS residential sales in the province, which is 84,300 sales per year – and far below the 100,000-plus sales seen in the recent market boom of 2015 and 2016.

Source : BCREA Economics

Cameron Muir, BCREA chief economist, said, “The shock to affordability from restrictive mortgage policies, especially the B20 stress test, will continue to limit housing demand in the province this year. However, a relatively strong economy and favourable demographics are likely creating pent-up demand in the housing market.”

Sales are predicted to rise in all 12 of BC’s real estate board areas in 2020, with Greater Vancouver – having seen the steepest declines – expected to see the largest recovery, with transactions forecast to jump 25.3% in 2020 compared with 2019.

However, price changes tend to lag sales trends. All but one of the board areas are expected to see prices rise next year, but Victoria and Greater Vancouver’s forecast price recoveries are meagre at 0.3% and 0.5% respectively. Chilliwack is the outlier, with its 4% average price rises in 2019 giving way to a slight decline in 2020.

Source : BCREA Economics

Forecast : Home Prices & Sales Across Province to Recover in 2020 by Joannah Connolly | Glacier Media Real Estate | Business in Vancouver