Following growth in the previous two months in the wake of a slight upturn in the real estate market activity at the start of winter, house prices in Canada’s major urban centres remained unchanged on a seasonally adjusted basis from March to April. This stabilization comes as resale market activity remains sluggish in the spring, with first-time homebuyers possibly on the sidelines awaiting possible interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada by summer. Weakness is particularly noticeable in the country’s largest city, Toronto, where the job market has deteriorated significantly in recent months (unemployment rate now 7.9% vs. 5.6% a year earlier). Although record demographic growth, a shortage of housing supply, more favourable fixed mortgage rates than last year and possible cuts in the policy rate will continue to support the Canadian real estate market in the months ahead, we are cautiously optimistic about the extent of an eventual recovery in the housing market in the months ahead and its potential impact on prices. Indeed, many uncertainties remain, including the risk of a further deterioration in the labour market, particularly among young people who are facing the worst affordability conditions in decades.

Teranet-National Bank House Price Index Remains Stable in April

Month-Over-Month

After adjusting for seasonal effects, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™, which covers the country’s eleven largest CMAs, remained stable from March to April, after increasing in the previous two months. In April, seven of the 11 CMAs included in the index recorded increases: Edmonton (+2.0%), Montreal (+1.9%), Calgary (+1.9%), Ottawa-Gatineau (+0.5%), Vancouver (+0.4%), Hamilton (+0.4%) and Winnipeg (+0.3%). Conversely, declines were recorded in Quebec City (-2.1%), Victoria (-1.9%), Toronto (-1.2%) and Halifax (-0.7%). On the other hand, increases were recorded in five of the 20 CMAs not included in the composite index for which data are available in April. The strongest monthly increases were seen in Kelowna (+6.2% after a 4.7% drop the previous month) and Guelph (+6.1% after an 8.0% drop the previous month). Conversely, the biggest declines were in Brantford (-9.1% after a 4.0% increase the previous month), Kingston (-4.9% after an 11.6% increase the previous month) and Moncton (-4.9% after an 8.9% increase the previous month).

Before seasonal adjustments, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™ rose by 1.9% from March to April, the third consecutive monthly increase. Moreover, increases were observed in all cities included in the index, ranging from +0.2% in Quebec City to +1.9% in Montreal.

Year-Over-Year

The Teranet-National Bank Composite Home Price Index™ rose by 5.7% from April 2023 to April 2024. Increases were seen in all 11 cities comprising the composite index in April. Calgary led the way with a 16.0% year-over-year price increase, followed by Edmonton with a 9.4% gain and Quebec City with 7.4% growth. As for lagging markets, prices rose less than average in Victoria (+2.2%), Toronto (+3.5%), Winnipeg (+3.7%), Hamilton (+3.8%), Halifax (+4.8%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (+5.5%). As for the 20 other CMAs not included in the composite index, annual gains were observed in 16 of them. The strongest growth was recorded in Moncton (+14.0%) and Thunder Bay (+13.6%), while the biggest decline was in Peterborough (-2.3%).

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Price Stabilize in April as Resale Market Remains Sluggish