The BCREA CLI fell 0.4 points to 145.9 in the second quarter of 2024, while the six-month moving average also fell to 146.1. The index is unchanged from the same time last year.

Second Quarter Highlights :

• The economic activity index declined in Q2 by 0.57 points. Inflation-adjusted retail trade (-1.6%), and wholesale trade (-2.4%) both fell from the previous quarter, pushing the economic component down in spite of growth in manufacturing sales (+2.1%).

• Office employment (financial, insurance, real estate, and professional services) rose by 3.2% in the second quarter, while manufacturing employment increased by 0.6%. The overall employment component rose by 0.76 points from the previous quarter, contributing positively to the index.

• The financial component of the index also declined in the second quarter by 0.46 points. Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) prices declined by -7.5%, pushing the component down. However, interest rate spreads declined for a second consecutive quarter, indicating less perceived short-term risk in the economy. This offset some of the effects of declining REIT prices on the CLI, but the financial component was still negative on net.

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Commercial Leading Indicator Signals Slower Commercial Activity in 2024 by Amit Sidhu | Economist BCREA