After rising steadily by 2.8% over the previous six months, the Teranet-National Bank composite index remained unchanged in January. This loss of momentum comes at a time when transactions in the housing resale market declined in December and again in January due to the
uncertainty created by the threat of US tariffs (top graph). In addition, a significant number of sellers decided to put their property up for sale in January, perhaps in anticipation of a high season more vigorous than in recent years. This marked increase in new listings, combined with
the decline in sales, shifted real estate market conditions from ‘favourable to sellers’ to balanced during the month (bottom graph), which could contain price growth in the coming months. However, we believe that the impact of potential tariffs on the confidence of potential buyers will
dissipate in the coming months, provided that the repercussions on the labour market remain limited. In addition, the recent interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada and the increase in the amortization period to 30 years for first-time buyers should continue to support the market in the
coming months, but persistent affordability difficulties could limit the extent of the recovery in the most expensive markets.

Month-Over-Month

After adjusting for seasonal effects, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price IndexTM, which covers the country’s eleven largest CMAs, remained stable from December to January after six consecutive months of increase. Since the Bank of Canada began lowering interest rates in June 2024, prices have risen by 2.8% and are just 0.3% below their record high reached in April 2022. In January, seven of the 11 CMAs included in the index saw growth, namely Quebec City (+3.2%), Halifax (+0.9%), Calgary (+0.8%), Ottawa-Gatineau (+0.6%), Victoria (+0.6%), Edmonton (+0.6%) and Montreal (+0.4%). Conversely, prices decreased in Winnipeg (-1.5%), Hamilton (-1.4%) and Vancouver (-0.6%), while remaining stable in Toronto. In addition, an increase was observed in eight of the 18 CMAs not included in the composite index for which data are available in January. The strongest monthly growth was observed in Trois-Rivières (+6.8% after a decline of -2.7% the previous month), Peterborough (+1.6%) and Lethbridge (+1.4% after a decline of -1.5% the previous month). Conversely, the most significant decreases occurred in Sherbrooke (-4.9%), Kingston (-4.0%) and Brantford (-3.7%).

Before seasonal adjustments, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price IndexTM fell by 0.5% from December to January.

Year-Over-Year

The Teranet-National Bank Composite Home Price IndexTM rose by 3.4% from January 2024 to January 2025, a slower growth than the 3.6% observed the previous month. Increases were observed in ten of the 11 cities forming the composite index in January, with Hamilton being the exception (-0.3%). Quebec City led the way with a 13.6% increase in prices over twelve months, followed by Calgary with an 8.6% gain and Montreal with 6.9% growth. As for the 18 other CMAs not included in the composite index, annual gains were observed in thirteen of them. Among the markets on the rise, the strongest growth was recorded in Trois-Rivières (+25.5%), Lethbridge (+7.3%) and Sudbury (+7.1%). Conversely, the most significant declines occurred in Brantford (-5.2%) and Belleville (-2.9%).

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Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™  Remains Stable in January

Housing Prices Remain Stable in January