The BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) rose 2 points to 152.6 in the first quarter of 2025, while the six-month moving average rose to 151.1. Compared to the same quarter in 2024, the index was up 3.3%.

First Quarter Highlights

• The economic activity index rose in Q1 by 0.5 points. Growth in this index was driven by increased inflation-adjusted retail trade (0.2%) and wholesale trade (0.4%), which offset a small decline in manufacturing sales.

• The overall employment component increased by 1.3 points in the first quarter. Broad-based growth across office employment (0.6%) and manufacturing employment (0.7%) suggests a healthy level of job creation across many sectors to begin the year.

• The financial component of the index increased in the first quarter by 0.1 points. Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) prices rose by 0.6%, slightly pushing the component up. Additionally, interest rate spreads saw modest decreases from the previous quarter, indicating slightly less perceived short-term risk in the economy (this data reflects pre-tariff conditions).

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Commercial Leading Indicator Shows Improved Environment for Commercial Real Estate by Amit Sidhu | Economist | BCREA