The Teranet-National Bank composite index fell 1.6% from April to May, marking the fifth consecutive monthly decline and a sharper contraction than in previous months. As a result, prices have fallen by 3.9% since December 2024. May also marks an important turning point, with the composite index falling into negative territory for the first time in 22 months, down 1.6% year-over-year from May 2024. This comes as the resale market continues to be particularly weak, due in part to uncertainty surrounding the trade war with the United States. Although the number of transactions in the resale market has increased slightly in the last two months, market conditions have eased considerably across the country and now point to a balanced market. However, this reversal is mainly due to market conditions that are strongly favourable to buyers in Ontario and British Columbia, which is causing prices to decline, particularly in these two provinces with persistent affordability challenges. In fact, 90% of markets (18 out of 20) in Ontario and British Columbia recorded declines during the month, compared to 27% in other provinces (3 out of 11). Amid ongoing economic uncertainty, moderate population growth and the risk of continued high long-term interest rates, home prices are expected to remain under pressure in the coming months, even if the resale market regains some momentum. The accumulation of homes for sale will continue to weigh on prices in the coming months.

MONTH-OVER-MONTH

The Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™, which covers the country’s eleven largest CMAs, fell 1.6% from April to May, marking the fifth consecutive monthly decline. In May, six of the 11 CMAs included in the index saw declines: Toronto (-2.9%), Vancouver (-2.6%), Victoria (-1.0%), Winnipeg (-0.5%), Hamilton (-0.4%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (-0.3%). In contrast, prices rose in Quebec City (+3.2%), Montreal (+0.7%), Calgary (+0.5%), Edmonton (+0.5%) and Halifax (+0.4%). Furthermore, declines were observed in 15 of the 20 CMAs not included in the composite index for which data are available for May. The largest monthly decreases were observed in Peterborough (-6.0%), Thunder Bay (-5.7% after +7.4% the previous month) and Sudbury (-3.9%). Conversely, the largest increases were in Lethbridge (+3.8%), Oshawa (+2.8% after -4.5% the previous month) and Sherbrooke (+1.8%).

Before seasonal adjustments, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™ declined by 0.1% from April to May.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR

The Teranet-National Bank Composite Home Price Index™ declined by 1.6% from May 2024 to May 2025, marking the first annual decline in 22 months. However, increases were observed in eight of the 11 cities that make up the composite index in May. Quebec City led the way with a 17.1% increase over 12 months, followed by Montreal with a 7.6% gain and Winnipeg with 6.4% growth. In contrast, declines were observed in Toronto (-6.1%), Vancouver (-4.3%) and Hamilton (-4.0%). Regarding the 20 other CMAs not included in the composite index, annual declines were observed in twelve of them. Among the declining markets, the sharpest declines were recorded in Oshawa (-5.2%), Kitchener (-4.9%) and Abbotsford-Mission (-4.2%). Conversely, the largest increases were in Trois-Rivières (+14.7%), Saint John (+12.3%) and Sherbrooke (+12.0%).

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Teranet-National Bank House Price Index Continues to Decline in May