The first half of 2025 revealed contrasts within Canada’s high-end housing market, as luxury and ultra-luxury segments responded differently to current real estate and macroeconomic factors. According to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada’s Top-Tier Real Estate: 2025 Mid-Year State of Luxury Report, while national consumer confidence reached record lows amid escalating Canada–U.S. trade tensions and mounting uncertainty, select premium markets demonstrated unexpected resilience, particularly in the ultra-luxury tier.

Market Divergence Amid National Volatility

Nationally, luxury real estate, typically defined by properties priced over $1 million, experienced a drop in activity. High housing costs in Toronto and Vancouver, combined with global volatility and sluggish employment growth, suppressed sales and dampened sentiment. Nonetheless, key markets like Montreal, Calgary, and ultra-luxury pockets in Toronto remained comparatively strong performers.

Greater Toronto Area : Ultra-Luxury Gains Buck Trends

Despite a 23% decline in sales over $1 million and a 28% drop in properties sold over $4 million in the GTA during the first half of 2025, the ultra-luxury market, defined as including properties over $10 million) surged. Twelve properties sold above this threshold, or triple the number from the same period in 2024, all involving single-family homes. Within the City of Toronto itself, seven properties over $10 million sold on MLS, more than double last year’s figure.

However, the actual number of ultra-luxury properties sold may be even higher; Sotheby’s experts also reported increased ultra-luxury sales occurring off-market, reflecting both privacy concerns and confidence among ultra-high-net-worth buyers. Single-family homes accounted for 88% of all GTA luxury sales over $4 million.

Montreal : Market Momentum Continues

Montreal emerged as one of the most stable luxury markets nationwide. Residential sales over $1 million rose 26% year-over-year, while those over $4 million climbed 22%. Detached homes accounted for 42% of luxury sales, with a 67% jump in single-family sales over $4 million. The city’s benchmark home price, meanwhile, remains accessible relative to Toronto and Vancouver, and declining interest rates released pent-up demand.

Calgary : Steady Growth

Calgary’s luxury market continued its steady ascent. While sales above $1 million rose modestly by 3%, transactions over $4 million jumped 43% year-over-year.

Vancouver : Decreasing Activity in The High-End Market

Vancouver’s luxury sector continued to underperform, however. According to Sotheby’s, luxury home sales over $4 million fell 51% year-over-year. Only two ultra-luxury homes sold in the first half of 2025, down from seven in 2024. Despite stabilizing rates, Vancouver’s extreme housing prices and deteriorating buyer confidence entrenched buyer’s market conditions.

Canadian Luxury Housing Holds Ground in 2025, with Toronto’s Ultra-Luxury Market Leading by Joanna Gerber | Canadian Real Estate Wealth