The Teranet-National Bank Composite Index continued to improve in October, posting an increase for a third consecutive month, registering at +0.4%, following a period of price contraction from January to July. This rise comes as the number of transactions in the resale market has increased in recent months despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding the trade dispute with the United States. While the increase in prices in October was more significant for certain markets, the diffusion was the best seen this year as a large majority of markets registered an increase. The only declines were registered in Montreal and Halifax, the former which edged down following a surge of 2.5% in the prior month and the latter which essentially reversed its previous performance (-1.2% after +1.0%). It should be noted, however, that despite the slight increase in prices over the past three months, the composite index is still down 3.9% in 2025, with significant declines in Toronto (-7.9%), Vancouver (-6.2%), and Hamilton (-5.6%).

Although the composite index maintained its upward trend in October, soft market conditions in Ontario and British Columbia are expected to constrain price increases in the near term, even with some relief from recent Bank of Canada policy rate cuts. While 5-year mortgage interest rates have edged down, they appear to be stabilizing and could be nearing a bottom. Combined with moderating population growth and a labour market that remains vulnerable, these factors could continue to weigh on the residential market outlook.

MONTH-OVER-MONTH

The Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™, which covers the country’s eleven largest CMAs, rose 0.4% from September to October after seasonal adjustment, marking the third consecutive monthly increase after seven declines. In October, eight of the 11 CMAs included in the index saw increases: Quebec City (+2.5% after +1.2% the previous month), Winnipeg (+1.7% after -1.2% the previous month), Ottawa-Gatineau (+1.4%, after +0.2% the previous month), Victoria (+0.6%), Vancouver (+0.5%), Edmonton (+0.4%), Toronto (+0.3%, after -0.3%), and Calgary (+0.1%). Prices were stable in Hamilton while prices declined in Halifax (-1.2%, after +1.0% in the previous month) and Montreal (-1.0% after +2.5% the previous month). Furthermore, increases were observed in thirteen of the 20 CMAs not included in the composite index for which data are available in October. The largest monthly increases were observed in Trois-Rivieres (+5.3%), Abbotsford-Mission (+4.9% after -2.4% the previous month) and Thunder Bay (+2.9%). Conversely, the largest declines occurred in Kitchener (-1.9%) and Oshawa (-1.9%).

Before seasonal adjustments, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™ actually declined by 0.6% from September to October, marking the sixth decline in seven months.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR

The Teranet-National Bank Composite Home Price Index™ fell by 2.6% from October 2024 to October 2025, matching the decline of 2.6% seen in the previous month. However, increases were observed in eight of the 11 cities that make up the composite index in October. Quebec City led the way with price increases of 15.7% over twelve months, followed by Winnipeg with a gain of 5.4% and Edmonton with growth of 5.3%. Conversely, the largest declines were observed in Toronto (-7.2%), Vancouver (-4.5%) and Hamilton (-4.0%). Of the 20 other CMAs not included in the composite index, twelve saw annual declines. Among the declining markets, the sharpest decreases were recorded in Kitchener (-7.3%), Oshawa (-6.6%), and Peterborough (-5.8%). Conversely, the largest increases occurred in Sherbrooke (+16.4%), Trois-Rivieres (+13.3%), and Lethbridge (+11.9%).

Teranet-National Bank House Price Index Continues to Rise in October by Kyle Dahms | Economist | National Bank of Canada