Momentum is expected to return to Canada’s housing market this spring, though activity is likely to remain suppressed by economic uncertainty and cautious buyers, according to a new Royal LePage report.

The housing market closed out 2025 with softer prices and muted sales, as concerns about the broader economy weighed on consumer confidence during what is typically a stronger period. The aggregate price of a home in Canada declined 1.5% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2025 to $807,200.

Spring Activity Expected to Rise Modestly

Royal LePage expects market activity to improve this spring, though not surge. Lower borrowing costs, stable prices and healthier inventory levels are expected to draw more buyers back, particularly in higher-priced markets.

Royal LePage CEO Phil Soper pointed to positive economic indicators, like moderate growth in GDP and employment, but said consumer confidence continues to drag on the housing market.

“After a full year of economic and political turbulence, more and more households have given up waiting for perfect certainty and are refocusing on what is happening at home, and what matters most: securing the right housing for their families,” he said. “As that adjustment takes hold, we expect it to gradually translate into increased market participation.”

Royal LePage projects the aggregate price of a home in Canada will increase one per cent in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter in 2025. The median price of a single-family detached property is expected to increase 2%, while the median price of a condominium is anticipated to decrease 2.5%.

Quebec Markets Outperform as Toronto and Vancouver Lag

Regional results varied widely. Quebec City recorded the strongest performance among major markets, with aggregate home prices rising 13.2% year over year for the seventh consecutive quarter. The Greater Montreal Area also posted growth, with prices up 4.5%.

Canada’s most expensive markets continued to see declines. Aggregate prices fell 5.7% in the Greater Toronto Area and 4.1% in Greater Vancouver during the fourth quarter.

“At long last, home values across Canada are beginning to compress,” Soper said, noting that slower growth in Toronto and Vancouver is narrowing the long-standing gap between those cities and other major regions.

Condos Remain Under Pressure

Price softness in Toronto and Vancouver has been most pronounced in the condominium market. Royal LePage pointed to elevated inventory levels, reduced investor participation and hesitation among first-time buyers as ongoing challenges in urban condo markets.

Lower rental demand, tied in part to reduced immigration levels and limits on temporary foreign workers and international students, has further weighed on the segment, even as borrowing costs have declined.

Royal LePage : Spring Market will “Simmer, Not Surge” by REM Real Estate Magazine