There is more price downside to come for Vancouver’s condo market, economists with Toronto-Dominion Bank (TSX:TD) are predicting.

TD Economics is forecasting a roughly 15% peak-to-trough decline from the 2023 high by mid-2027, marking the deepest correction on record back to at least 2005, said a Thursday, June 11 research note from the bank.

For 2026, prices should fall around seven to eight per cent between the fourth quarters of 2025 to 2026 before some stabilization occurs in 2027, wrote economist Rishi Sondhi and economic analyst Paul Kim.

Vancouver’s downturn should remain milder than Toronto’s, with prices expected to stay above pre-pandemic levels, they wrote.

“Vancouver’s condo market is in the midst of a notable correction, though one that appears less severe than in Toronto. Sales are down and prices are falling, reflecting softer demand and elevated supply,” said the note.

“We expect condo prices to decline further in 2026 before stabilizing in 2027. Even so, prices will likely remain above pre-pandemic levels, compared to well below in Toronto.”

As affordability improves and demand gradually returns, the beginnings of a more durable recovery should take shape in 2027, albeit one tempered by slower population growth, said the bank.

The research note focused on the resale market, which it called “a hugely important slice of the housing pie.”

The reasons for muted condo demand include the region’s subdued labour market, hiring pullbacks tied to the trade war and depressed housing market, and upward pressure on borrowing rates since the onset of the Middle East conflict, said TD.

BC is historically the most sensitive of any province to rate increases due to its poor affordability backdrop, said TD.

Buyers are on the sidelines waiting for better deals to emerge, and listings are at the higher end of historical ranges, said the bank.

On the other hand, Vancouver’s condo stock is more heavily skewed toward end users looking for attainable entry points, compared to Toronto where investors play a larger role. This means Vancouver has a less volatile demand base, said TD.

Declining prices through 2026 will bring improved affordability which should boost activity, said TD. Pent-up demand accumulated during the downturn should also support the market.

But the recovery could be restrained by tepid population growth and muted labour market conditions.

“Together, these factors point to only a gradual and modest strengthening in sales over the next 12-18 months. Indeed, sales are likely to hold well below 10-year averages through next year,” said TD.

On the supply side, rising sales and falling condo completions should gradually eat into elevated inventory, helping to rebalance the market over time, said the bank.

TD : Vancouver Condo Prices Expected to Fall Further in 2026 by Jami Makan | BIV