The Teranet-National Bank Composite Index declined for the sixth consecutive month in May, with home prices falling 1.0% on a month-over-month basis. This cumulative decline amounts to 4.0% over the past six months and 4.3% over the past year. The continued decline in prices in May comes amid a context where transaction volumes in the resale market remain depressed relative to their historical average. That said, home sales in the resale market have rebounded over the past two months, a recovery that could continue in the coming months thanks to the recent improvement in consumer confidence and the labour market. Real estate market conditions have also tightened in several regions, although they remain relatively loose for now in Toronto and Vancouver. We therefore expect these markets to gradually stabilize over the coming months and may even see price increases by the end of the year. It turns out that prices in real terms have experienced significant corrections from their 2022 peaks in these two major markets, leading to a notable improvement in affordability. This improvement in accessibility, which has been pronounced over the past year, could be one of the factors behind the recent rebound in transactions in the resale market. However, several factors could limit the extent of this recovery and constrain price growth, including demographic decline, fixed mortgage rates that remain high and have risen sharply since February, and uncertainty surrounding the renewal of the USMCA.

Month-Over-Month

The Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™, which covers the country’s eleven largest CMAs, fell by 1.0% from April to May, marking the sixth consecutive monthly decline (seasonally adjusted). In May, seven of the 11 CMAs included in the index recorded declines: Hamilton (-2.4%), Toronto (-1.7%), Ottawa-Gatineau (-1.6%), Halifax (-0.9%), Montreal (-0.7%), Vancouver (-0.6%), and Winnipeg (-0.5%). Conversely, prices rose in Victoria (+1.2%), Edmonton (+1.1%), and Quebec City (+0.6%), while they remained stable in Calgary. Additionally, declines were observed in 13 of the 20 CMAs not included in the composite index for which data were available in May. The largest monthly declines were recorded in Barrie (-6.5%), Saint John (-4.7%), and Sudbury (-4.6%). Conversely, the largest increases were observed in Trois-Rivières (+10.7% after -5.0% the previous month) and Moncton (+3.0%).

Before seasonal adjustments, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™ rose 0.1% from April to May, marking the third consecutive monthly increase

Year-Over-Year

The Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™ fell by 4.3% between May 2025 and May 2026, a more moderate decline than the 4.5% drop recorded the previous month. Declines were recorded in seven of the 11 cities that make up the composite index in May. Hamilton led the way with a 9.0% year-over-year price decline, followed by Toronto (-8.1%) and Vancouver (-5.7%). Conversely, the sharpest increases were observed in Quebec City (+10.4%), Winnipeg (+5.9%), and Montreal (+2.9%). Among the 20 other CMAs not included in the composite index, 15 posted annual declines. Among the declining markets, the sharpest decreases were recorded in Barrie (-12.1%), Guelph (-8.4%), and Oshawa (-7.5%). Conversely, the strongest increases were observed in Trois-Rivières (+12.6%) and Moncton (+4.0%).

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Teranet-National Bank House Price Index Falls for A Sixth Consecutive Month by Daren King | Economist | National Bank of Canada