Royal LePage is forecasting the region’s home prices will fall 3.5% in the fourth quarter of 2026 compared to a year earlier.

The national brokerage is expecting Metro Vancouver to underperform every other major market in the country. Greater Toronto is the only other major market expected to post a decline, with prices forecast to fall 2%. Prices are expected to rise everywhere else in the country, with the strongest gains in Quebec.

This would continue an ongoing slide for Metro Vancouver and follow the second quarter’s 4.5% decrease to $1,164,100, according to a report released Tuesday, July 14 by the brokerage.

By housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 5.2% year-over-year to $1,649,200 in the second quarter, while the median price of a condominium decreased 5.1% to $721,000 during the same period, said the firm.

In Vancouver, the aggregate price of a home decreased five per cent year-over-year to $1,340,800 in the second quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 5.7% to $2,128,000, while the median price of a condominium declined 7.9% to $748,100, said the firm.

On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region declined a modest 0.9% in the second quarter, Royal LePage said.

Randy Ryalls, broker and manager with Royal LePage Sterling Realty in Port Moody, said the market has been “a little bit soft” for most of 2025 and so far in 2026.

There’s lots of inventory, the number of transactions is down and it’s a buyer’s market, he said.

“We expect kind of a slow adjustment to occur probably now through the end of the year,” he said.

Ryalls said prices may be nearing a turning point, although timing the market is difficult. Momentum is returning, he added.

The market saw a pretty good spark in the last couple of weeks of June, he said. The number of sales have increased slightly each month and outpaced the number of listings in recent weeks.

“We’re seeing multiple offers on well-priced, well-presented listings,” he said.

Interest rates are unlikely to fall much, geopolitical uncertainty persists and the summer market typically slows down a bit, Ryalls noted.

“We might see a few more percentage points on price, but I don’t think too much more than that,” he said.

Royal LePage said its housing values are based on company data in addition to data and analytics from RPS Real Property Solutions Inc., while its forecast values are informed by its Realtors’ opinions and market knowledge.

Ryalls said he was cautious about declaring whether the market is turning slowly, but surely. “The ‘surely’ is the hard part in that sentence,” Ryalls said.

Royal LePage : Metro Vancouver Home Prices Could Slide Further This Year by Jami Makan | BIV