Every province sold fewer homes this August than it did a year earlier. That is a difficult starting point for a fall recovery.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA)’s August release counted 37,504 residential sales across Canada, down 6.9% from August 2025. Sales also slipped 0.7% from July after seasonal adjustment. Activity has gone largely nowhere since May.

The comparison year was already weak. Canada recorded 470,314 sales in 2025, down 1.9% from 2024. This year’s August decline therefore comes on top of an annual market that had already contracted. Through August, 2026 sales were down 5.3% from the same period last year.

Alberta’s August sales fell 11.5% annually. Quebec was down 7.3%, New Brunswick 8.7% and Ontario 6%. Saskatchewan held up better, but even there sales fell 2.4%.

Those figures matter for agents working outside the country’s most expensive markets. Relative affordability has helped support prices in several regions. It has not insulated transaction volumes from the slowdown.

Sellers are Adding Competition

New listings rose 3.3% from July after seasonal adjustment, while sales declined. The national sales-to-new-listings ratio consequently fell from 51.1% to 49.1%, below its long-term average of 54.7%.

For a seller, the practical problem is straightforward: more competing properties arrived without a matching increase in purchases.

The time frame matters. August’s actual new listings were still 3.2% below August 2025. The increase was monthly, after removing the usual seasonal pattern. It would be wrong to describe every supply measure as surging.

There were just under 200,000 properties for sale nationally, 1.4% more than a year earlier and roughly normal for August. Inventory was 4.8 months, unchanged for four months. CREA’s national measures still describe a balanced market, with bargaining power moving towards buyers.

The provincial differences are substantial. Ontario’s seasonally adjusted sales-to-new-listings ratio was 41.9% and British Columbia’s was 45.3%. Saskatchewan stood at 67.8% and Manitoba at 65%. A pricing strategy suited to a scarce Saskatchewan listing will not necessarily work in a well-supplied Ontario neighbourhood.

The Price Divide is Real and Increasingly Untidy

The national benchmark was unchanged in August and 3% below a year earlier. The average sale price, meanwhile, rose 0.6% to $668,219. The average reflects the mix of properties sold; the MLS Home Price Index is designed to track price changes for comparable homes.

A small annual increase in the average is poor evidence that the typical Canadian home is appreciating. The shrinking annual decline in the HPI also deserves scrutiny. With prices largely flat since spring, an improving year-over-year comparison can come from the older comparison month getting weaker. That is a base effect. It does not require prices to rise today.

The regional HPI results show where the damage remains concentrated. In CREA’s seasonally adjusted table, Fraser Valley prices were down 7.1% annually, Kitchener-Waterloo 6.1% and Greater Vancouver 5.6%. Greater Toronto was down 4.5%. Victoria, however, was up 0.9%, illustrating why even British Columbia needs more than one label.

Regina was up 3.3%, Winnipeg 2.6%, Montreal 2.3% and St. John’s 7.5%. These are meaningful differences from the losses in southern Ontario and the Lower Mainland.

But some annual gains are becoming stale descriptions of current conditions. Winnipeg’s benchmark slipped 0.2% in August. Montreal fell 0.3% and Quebec City fell 0.7%. Greater Moncton remained up 4.8% annually while falling 2.9% over three months. Prince Edward Island was down over both periods.

Nor should every positive number be dismissed as a base effect. Regina and Saskatoon both posted monthly and three-month gains. The useful distinction is between markets still advancing and markets living off earlier gains.

Across Atlantic Canada, the actual share of new listings matched by sales was lower than last August in every province. Newfoundland and Labrador’s ratio fell from 77.5% to 60.1%; New Brunswick’s fell from 74.6% to 65.3%. Annual price gains can coexist with a weakening negotiating position for sellers.

Financing Could Keep The Fall Market Subdued

The next constraint may come from the mortgage quote rather than the asking price. Five-year Government of Canada bond yields increased through the summer while the overnight policy rate held steady. CREA says higher bond yields have already pushed fixed mortgage rates up.

In its latest policy statement, the Bank warned that persistent high energy prices had increased inflation risks and that renewed trade uncertainty could delay investment and hiring. Higher borrowing costs and less confidence in future income could keep buyers cautious even where prices have fallen. Oil-producing regions may receive an income benefit, but that does not remove the financing pressure.

CMHC’s summer outlook expects starts to decline through 2028. Its new supply report warns that weaker ownership construction could threaten recent affordability gains. Fewer future homes, however, will not clear a seller’s competition this fall.

For agents, the evidence supports a more demanding listing conversation. Use recent comparable sales, check the properties the buyer can choose instead, and revisit the price when that competition changes. An annual gain is historical context. It is not a promise that the next buyer will pay more.

Canada Enters Fall with Fewer Home Sales in Every Province by Daniel Foch | REM Real Estate Magazine