February was the busiest month for home sales in Canada since June 2007, reports the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), but the activity was by no means consistent in all markets. National sales were up 18.7% compared to one year ago, and 12.7% higher than the ten-year average for the month of February, but many markets saw declines in sales.

On a monthly basis, more markets posted declines in sales activity in February than increases, CREA says. But on a year-over-year basis, the majority of markets experienced increased sales. Aside from the two hottest markets, other markets are well balanced or have ample supply, said CREA president Pauline Aunger. Sales and prices are under pressure, meanwhile, in markets like Calgary, Edmonton and Saskatoon.

The national average sale price rose 16.4 per cent year over year, but that hefty increase was entirely due to the Greater Vancouver and Toronto markets, which saw year-over-year gains of 22.18% and 11.3% respectively. Without including them in the calculation, the national average home price declined by 1.4%.

By housing type, the year-over-year price gains were
• two-storey single family homes : 10.54%
• townhouse/row units : 7.41%
• one-storey single family homes : 7.38%
• apartment units : 6.34%

The national housing inventory level was at a six-year low at the end of February, with just 5.2 months of inventory. As with the national average price, this national inventory level is distorted by the increasingly tight conditions in the two biggest markets. In both the Vancouver area and the GTA, inventory is currently below two months.

As for the coming year and 2017, CREA forecasts that the strong market conditions that prevailed in 2015 in British Columbia and Ontario will continue and even intensify, while activity in the oil-producing provinces of Saskatchewan, Alberta, and Newfoundland and Labrador will decline. Calgary is projected to record a decline of 18.7% in annual sales this year.

But very tight supply will continue to drive strong price growth in the GTA and Vancouver markets. Only lack of supply will hold Ontario sales in check, CREA says, calling for growth of just 0.3% in 2016. The strong price growth in the two most expensive markets will drive the national average price up by 8%, to $478,100 in 2016.

February Busiest Homes Market in 8 years, Regions Vary Widely by Josephine Nolan | Condo.ca