Earlier this year, Toronto’s home sales took a serious plunge, while the Vancouver market remained relatively stable. Last month, that trend looked like it was starting to reverse.

Sales jumped 18.6% in the GTA in July, while the average selling price rose 4.8% year-over-year to $782,129.

At the same time, Vancouver saw home sales drop to their lowest level in 18 years, with a 30% year-over-year drop.

“In the GTA home sales were up 6.6% in July, leaving the sales to listings ratio above 50, up from a trough of 44 in March, while average prices rose 3.1% month-over-month,” writes TD senior economist Josh Marple in a recent note.

The data supports the forecasts of many economists, who have long predicted that the Toronto market would begin to warm up heading into the fall.

“This fits our broad narrative that the second half of 2018 would begin to witness stronger housing figures as the transitory shock from tightened [mortgage rules],” writes Scotiabank Economics Vice President Derek Holt, in a note.

Vancouver, on the other hand, is struggling to deal with stricter foreign buyer rules, imposed earlier this year.
TD’s Marple notes that Vancouver’s slumping activity wasn’t limited to just sales.

“In the GVA, meanwhile ….. growth in quality-adjusted home prices (the only reported metric) slowed to its softest pace since 2015,” he writes.

Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver president Phil Moore attributes the sinking prices to a lack of demand.

“With fewer buyers active in today’s market, we’re seeing less upward pressure on home prices across the region,” he writes, in a statement.

According to Moore, demand is softest in the detached home market, but condos are also suffering the effects of a lack of buyer interest.

Meanwhile, the city’s housing supply is starting to creep upwards. There were 12,137 homes on the market in July, up 32% year-over-year.

Here’s Why Toronto’s Housing Market is Heating Up as Vancouver Continues to Stall by Sarah Niedoba | Livabl