The “impossibly high bar” to homeownership for Millennials in Canada’s major cities is not causing a generational exodus, a leading economist suggests.

In a new report, RBC Senior Economist Robert Hogue rebuffs what he calls “greatly exaggerated” concerns that ever higher housing costs may be culling the Millennial population in big cities such as Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver.

“There’s no evidence to suggest that high housing costs are gutting the ranks of millennials in Canada’s most expensive cities,” he writes unequivocally.

Hogue isn’t denying that a rising number of Millennials are in fact leaving major Canadian cities. But the rate at which they are departing barely makes a dent in the overall Millennial populations in large urban centres.

So while Millennial outflows from big cities are three times greater than in 2015, for every Millennial ditching these markets there are seven to 12 moving into Vancouver and Montreal from outside the province or country. In Toronto, seven arrive for each Millennial that departs.

“Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal continue to be magnets for young, mobile talent,” Hogue says.

In fact, net immigration of adults ages 20 to 34 into the three cities totalled 76,300 in 2018. That doesn’t include 28,200 non-permanent residents, typically students a temporary workers, who came from other countries. Nor does it take into account the 3,800 net migrants who touched down from out of province.

“If anything, the inflow of millennial immigrants is poised to grow in the coming years,” says Hogue, noting Canada’s yearly immigration target is set to climb to 350,000 by 2021.

Already, Millennials are “slightly over-represented,” particularly in Vancouver and Toronto. Canadian Millennials represent roughly 20 percent of the national population, while across Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver the share of Millennials is about 22 percent of the tri-city population.

The bottom line? “Housing demand isn’t at risk of falling anytime soon,” says Hogue.

“What could fall, however, is the rate of young households who own a home. High housing prices set an impossibly high bar to clear for many millennials to become homeowners in a big city. Expect a greater proportion of them to rent in the future.”

RBC : There’s No Evidence Millennials are Fleeing Canada’s Most Expensive Cities by Josh Sherman | Livabl