Home sales jumped 44.5 percent in Greater Vancouver in February as markets across the province returned to activity levels in line with long-term averages.

It was tipped to be the year that Vancouver’s housing market, which struggled through 2019, returned to relative normalcy. This recovery is now all threatened by the spread of the novel coronavirus, which in a few short months has upended the global economy, strained healthcare systems and disrupted life for billions of people in ways previously thought to be confined to the realm of disaster movies.

February’s housing market data was released earlier this week by the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA). In another sign that the market was ramping back up, the association’s tally for total sales dollar volume for February was $4.4 billion, up 41.4 percent over 2019.

In a short statement accompanying the data, BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson noted that Vancouver and markets across the province had largely returned to normal levels of activity in February, but it was unclear how the impact of the coronavirus pandemic would manifest in the March data.

“Recent declines in mortgage rates and favourable changes to mortgage qualifying rules may provide a boost to home sales heading into the spring, although there is significant economic uncertainty lingering over the outlook,” Ogmundson said.

While Ogmundson didn’t say with confidence how he thought the market impact would play out, Vancouver realtor Steve Saretsky was more blunt.

“I have heard from others in the industry that they expect real estate to act as a ‘flight to safety’ and thus it won’t be impacted. I personally don’t share that same view, but perhaps they are proven correct and my concerns fail to materialize,” he wrote in a March 12 blog post.

“To be honest, I hope they are right. Nothing is more destructive than a sharp decline in home prices. However, I am well aware there are others desperately hoping for this type of event.”

Coronavirus Pandemic Means “Significant Economic Uncertainty” Hangs Over Vancouver Housing by Sean MacKay | Livabl