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The Most Recent Statistics Show A Moderation in Home Sales, Recording-Setting of The Home Price Gains


Under Market Updates

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July 26th, 2021

June was a recording-setting month when it came to the home price gains over a 12-month period, shattering peak levels from 2017.

In June, the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price Index jumped 16 percent over the previous year. This marked the 11th consecutive month of appreciation and it was the strongest 12-month price gain on record, according to the company’s monthly report published this week. In a press release, Teranet-National Bank stated that last month’s increase surpassed the 14.2 percent rise recorded in June 2017 during the height of Canada’s housing market boom.

Of the 11 constituent markets the index analyzes, the 12-month increase was steered by five markets, including Halifax (30.8 percent), Hamilton (28.0 percent), Ottawa-Gatineau (25.8 percent), Montreal (19.4 percent) and Victoria (18.5 percent). Vancouver and Toronto fell behind the countrywide average with 14.7 percent and 15.9 percent year-over-year increases, respectively.

The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index is calculated by tracking observed or registered home prices using data gathered from public land registries. The index is based on the change in price between the two most recent sales of properties that have been sold at least twice, which is known as the repeat sales method, according to Teranet-National Bank.

The index tends to trail behind other widely-used home price tracking tools, including monthly average home sale prices published by CREA and local boards, due to its use of the repeat sales methodology. Public land registries often are slower to respond to market changes, as sale price data entered into these registries is not as quickly available as the MLS data used by real estate boards.

On a monthly basis, the National Composite Index rose by 2.7 percent from May to June. This was the first time since January that the monthly gain decelerated from the previous month — in May, the index increased by 2.8 percent. It is also the 20th consecutive monthly rise and the second-biggest increase since Teranet launched the index in 1999.

The same five index markets led June’s monthly gain — Ottawa-Gatineau, Hamilton, Victoria, Halifax and Montreal. These communities recorded monthly increases of 4.0 percent, 3.8 percent, 3.6 percent, 3.5 percent and 3.4 percent, respectively.

Month-to-month growth in Vancouver and Toronto closely matched the countrywide average, posting increases of 2.71 percent and 2.67 percent in June. The four remaining markets experienced more moderate increases, including Calgary (1.4 percent), Winnipeg (1.3 percent), Quebec City (1.3 percent) and Edmonton (1.1 percent). This was reportedly the fourth consecutive month where all 11 markets posted gains over the previous month.

The index’s June increase was consistent with the jump in the number of home sales recorded over the last several months by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), Teranet–National Bank reported.

“For a tenth straight month, the number of sale pairs entering into the 11 metropolitan indexes was higher than a year earlier,” wrote National Bank economist Daren King in the report.

“However, the most recent statistics show a moderation in the number of home sales, which could mean a slowing of price rises in the coming months,” he added.

June’s 12-Month Home Price Gain Shatters Record Set During Canada’s 2017 Market Peak by Michelle McNally | Livabl

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