Much like previous months, September saw fewer homes trade hands compared to September 2021, but sales are declining slower than what we experienced in May through August. According to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), the current market differs from historical precedents, so it’s difficult to compare it to previous years.

Sales Activity is Slowing in Some Major Canadian Markets

National home sales dropped 3.9% month-over-month in September, after consecutive months of seeing the number of home sales creep towards balancing out. Last month’s dip of only 1% suggested some settling but the most recent Bank of Canada announcement has affected markets. CREA data shows that the actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of sales came in 32.2% lower than in September last year, with 34,452 sales.

Although there were general declines across the board with 60% of local markets seeing dips in transactions, the national number of sales was pulled lower by some major Canadian markets including the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Greater Vancouver, Calgary, and Montreal. The GTA market declined by a significant 9.9%, while Montreal fell by 6.2% month-over-month. Greater Vancouver and Calgary dipped 4.6% and 4% respectively. “The important thing to remember is we’re still in the middle of a period of rapid adjustment, with buyers and sellers trying to feel each other out while a lot of people have had to take their home search plans back to the drawing board. As such, resale markets may remain on the quiet side for some time yet, with the flipside of that coin being even more pressure on rental markets,” explains CREA’s Senior Economist, Shaun Cathcart.

Buyers And Sellers Alike Are Biding Their Time

Earlier this year, buyers navigated historically low inventory of 1.7 months. Although we continue to see an improvement and more homes are entering the market, the current average is 3.7 months of inventory, still down from the historic metric of 5 months.

One of the overriding themes we’re experiencing is the lack of movement. Some buyers are still on the sidelines as the cost of borrowing has increased, intrigued to see how the market changes. More recently, sellers are choosing to wait out the market too. The number of newly listed homes fell by a further 0.8% following declines of 6.1% and 4.9% in July and August respectively. Jill Oudil, Chair of CREA, said : “September was another month of lower sales activity, although, with many sellers also opting to play the waiting game, the market remains on the tighter side of balanced market territory. It makes for an interesting dynamic, one that doesn’t really have many historical precedents. The market has changed so much in the last year, and the adjustment to higher borrowing costs is still underway.”

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average home price was $640,479 in September, down 6.6% year-over-year. Many of the recent monthly declines have been seen in Ontario, however some areas such as London and St Thomas, and Oakville-Milton have seen price growth. In London, prices grew by 0.3% from August, to a benchmark price of $625,000, and in Oakville-Milton, they’ve increased by 1.3% month-over-month to $1,329,400. Prices in Edmonton and Winnipeg are down from their peaks, falling 1.6% and 1.1% respectively, while Calgary, Regina, and Saskatoon have seen prices move sideways.

CREA : The Number of National Home Sales Dip as Canadians Prepare for Another Rate Increase by Daniel Crook | zoocasa