Following the recovery of the residential housing market in recent months, the Teranet-National Bank composite HPI jumped 2.2% from May to June, marking the third consecutive monthly increase, but also the largest price rise in a single month since November 2006. After a cumulative decline of 8.7% since peaking in April 2022, recent rises in the composite index have erased part of this correction, which now stands at just 6.2%. This rebound is even more impressive given that 81% of cities covered in June saw an increase during the month, the best diffusion of growth since the composite index peaked last year. While prices may continue to be supported by strong demographic growth and the lack of supply of properties on the market to continue their progression in the third quarter, the Bank of Canada’s recent rate hikes and the economic weakness expected in subsequent quarters will represent a headwind for house prices thereafter.

Month-Over-Month

Before seasonal adjustments, the Teranet-National BankTM Composite House Price Index, which covers the country’s eleven largest CMAs, rose by 2.6% from May to June, the fourth consecutive monthly increase.

After adjusting for seasonal effects, the Teranet-National BankTM Composite House Price Index rose by 2.2% from May to June, the third consecutive monthly increase and the highest since November 2006. In June, 9 of the 11 CMAs included in the index posted increases: Toronto (+2.9%), Vancouver (+2.6%), Quebec City (+2.6%), Halifax (+2.3%), Calgary (+2.1%), Victoria (+1.9%), Montreal (+1.4%), Ottawa-Gatineau (+1.0%) and Edmonton (+0.2%). Conversely, prices fell during the month in Winnipeg (-0.2%), while remaining stable in Hamilton. For the other CMAs not included in the composite index, growth was observed in 15 of the 20 CMAs for which data is available in June. The strongest monthly increases were seen in Brantford (+8.7% after a drop of 8.2% the previous month) and Sherbrooke (+5.8% after a drop of 4.5% the previous month). Conversely, the biggest decreases were seen in Saint John (-3.3%) and St. Catharines (-1.2%).

Year-Over-Year

The Teranet-National BankTM Composite Home Price Index fell by 5.1% from June 2022 to June 2023, a smaller annual contraction than the previous month. Increases were still observed in 3 of the 11 cities making up the composite index in June. Calgary led the way with a 6.5% year-on-year price increase, followed by Quebec City with a 5.2% gain and Edmonton with 1.3% growth. As for lagging markets, prices fell most sharply in Hamilton (-13.4%), Ottawa-Gatineau (-8.4%) and Toronto (-6.7%). As for the other 20 CMAs not included in the composite index, annual gains were observed in 5 of them. The strongest growth was recorded in Trois-Rivières (+6.7%), Lethbridge (+5.1%) and Sherbrooke (+4.8%), while the steepest declines were in St. Catharines (-14.4%), Brantford (-14.0%), Abbotsford-Mission (-13.3%) and Peterborough (-13.2%).

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Teranet-National Bank House Price Index Continues to Rise in June

Canada : Spectacular Jump in House Prices in June