Following the recovery of the residential real estate market in recent months, the Teranet-National Bank composite index jumped by 2.4% from June to July, the fourth consecutive monthly increase, but also the second highest price increase ever recorded in a single month after the one observed in July 2006. After a cumulative decline of 8.6% since peaking in April 2022, recent rises in the composite index have erased a part of this correction, which now stands at just 3.8%. Interestingly, the recent upturn in prices has been greatest in the cities that have seen the biggest corrections. However, only four of the 32 CMAs covered have completely erased their price declines: Saint John, Lethbridge, Quebec City and Trois-Rivières. Prices could continue to rise in the third quarter, supported by strong demographic growth and the lack of supply of properties on the market. That said, the deterioration in affordability with recent interest rate hikes in a less buoyant economic context should represent a headwind for house prices thereafter.

Month-Over-Month

Before seasonal adjustments, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™, which covers the country’s eleven largest CMAs, rose by 1.8% from June to July, the fifth consecutive monthly increase.

After adjusting for seasonal effects, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™ rose by 2.4% from June to July, the fourth consecutive monthly increase and the second-highest growth rate ever recorded in a single month, following the 3.1% increase in July 2006. In July, 8 of the 11 CMAs included in the index recorded increases: Halifax (+4.9%), Hamilton (+4.4%), Vancouver (+3.9%), Toronto (+3.5%), Victoria (+1.6%), Winnipeg (+1.3%), Ottawa-Gatineau (+0.6%), and Edmonton (+0.3%). Conversely, prices fell during the month in Quebec City (-1.2%), Montreal (-0.9%), and Calgary (-0.3%). On the other hand, growth was observed in 17 of the 20 CMAs not included in the composite index for which data is available in July. The strongest monthly increases were seen in Abbotsford-Mission (+7.2%), Saint John (+6.3% after a 4.0% decline the previous month) and Guelph (+6.0%). Conversely, the biggest decrease was in Sherbrooke (-3.8% after a 5.4% rise the previous month).

Year-Over-Year

The Teranet-National Bank Composite Home Price Index™ fell by 1.9% from July 2022 to July 2023, a smaller annual contraction than the previous month. Increases were nevertheless observed in 3 of the 11 cities making up the composite index in July. Calgary led the way with a 3.3% year-on-year price increase, followed by Halifax with a 2.1% gain and Quebec City with 1.1% growth.

As for lagging markets, prices fell most sharply in Hamilton (-7.9%), Ottawa-Gatineau (-5.4%) and Winnipeg (-5.2%). As for the other 20 CMAs not included in the composite index, annual gains were observed in 3 of them. The strongest growth was recorded in Lethbridge (+7.2%) and Trois-Rivières (+5.8%), while the steepest declines were in St. Catharines (-10.5%), London (-9.3%) and Branford (-9.1%).

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Teranet-National Bank House Price Index Rises Sharply in July

Canada : Spectacular Jump in House Prices in July