Spring and fall tend to be the busiest times of year for real estate markets in Canada, but this fall season is looking a little cooler than expected. Many Canadian homebuyers stayed on the sidelines in September awaiting the next Bank of Canada interest rate announcement, which in turn gave new listings a further chance to rebound.

According to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales were down 1.9% from August, marking the third straight month in a row of a decrease. However, compared to August when sales were down 4.1% month-over-month, September’s drop is less drastic.

“The recent trend of slowing sales and rising new listings continued in September. This presents an opportunity for buyers, although many of them seem content to stick to the sidelines until there’s more evidence that interest rates are indeed finally at the top. This, combined with sellers who, by and large, do not need to sell, means the market will likely remain on the slower side until next year,” said Larry Cerqua, Chair of CREA.

Major Markets Experience Significant Drop in Month-Over-Month Sales

Sales plunged in every major market from August, with Ontario cities especially seeing a drop. Hamilton-Burlington experienced a month-over-month drop in sales of 20.3%, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) experienced a 12.3% drop, and Ottawa experienced a 7.8% drop. Greater Vancouver was also down with sales declining by 16.3% from August.

Annually, sales were up by 1.9% nationally, rising from 34,446 sales in September 2022 to 35,116 sales in September 2023. Year-over-year sales were also up in some major markets, notably in Edmonton, where year-over-year sales increased the most by 26.1%. Victoria, Greater Vancouver, and Montreal also experienced a year-over-year increase in sales at 16.7%, 13.3% and 8.9% respectively.

This drop in sales activity has allowed inventory to continue increasing back to normal levels, with new listings in Canada up by 12.6% from last month and up 14.2% from last year. Ontario benefitted the most from an increase in new listings, with the Kitchener-Waterloo, the GTA, Niagara Region and Hamilton-Burlington all experiencing year-over-year increases of more than 14%. Months of inventory are also inching upwards, rising from 3.5 months in August to 3.6 months in September.

Prices Softening for the Third Month in a Row

The national benchmark price has decreased again, dropping from $750,100 in August to $741,400 in September. However, this is still 1.1% higher than September 2022 and though most major markets’ prices are trending downward month-over-month, year-over-year numbers are up.

Month-over-month price drops were felt the most in Ontario, where every major market experienced at least a 1% decline. London & St. Thomas experienced the most significant month-over-month drop at 2% while Kitchener-Waterloo followed at a 1.4% decline. Saskatoon was an outlier last month as the only major market to experience a month-over-month at 1%.

CREA : A Quiet Fall Market Brings Slowing National Sales and Jump in New Listings by MacKenzie Scibetta | zoocasa