The BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) rose 3.8 points to 149.5 in the fourth quarter of 2023, while the six-month moving average rose to 147.4. Compared to the same quarter in 2022, the index was up by 0.8%.

Fourth Quarter Highlights

• The economic activity index rose in Q4. Inflation-adjusted retail trade, wholesale trade, and manufacturing sales rose, pushing the economic component upwards.

• Office employment (financial, insurance, real estate, and professional services) fell by 0.6% in the fourth quarter, but manufacturing employment more than offset the decline with a 4.2% increase. On net, the employment component contributed positively to the index.

• The financial component of the index rose in the fourth quarter. Rising Real Estate Investment Trust prices pushed the financial component upwards. In addition, falling interest rate spreads, which indicate higher borrowing costs for companies relative to the government, further contributed to the rise in the financial component.

Click here to view the full Commercial Leading Indicator, PDF.

Commercial Leading Indicator Jumps in Fourth Quarter 2023 by Ryan McLaughlin | Economist | BCREA