After contracting by 1.5% over the previous five months, the Teranet-National Bank Composite IndexTM finally returned to growth in February, rising by 0.2% compared with the previous month. This increase in property prices comes at a time when the housing market regained strength between November and January, buoyed by exceptional demographic growth, more advantageous fixed mortgage interest rates and the anticipation of interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada. However, it remains to be seen whether this is the start of an upward trend. On the one hand, the lack of housing supply on the market will continue to support prices, but the persistent affordability challenges should limit households’ ability to pay and thus the increase in property values. It appears that the resale market started to slip again in February, while bond yields have risen in recent weeks due to less favourable news on inflation, which is delaying potential cuts in the overnight rate. As a result, we expect home prices to move sideways in the short term.

Month-Over-Month

After adjusting for seasonal effects, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™, which covers the country’s eleven largest CMAs, rose by 0.2% from January to February, the first increase after four consecutive monthly decreases. In February, five of the 11 CMAs included in the index recorded growth: Calgary (+1.6%), Victoria (+1.4%), Ottawa-Gatineau (+1.2%), Toronto (+0.7%) and Winnipeg (+0.1%). Conversely, there were decreases in Halifax (-1.7%), Vancouver (-0.8%), Montreal (-0.3%), Edmonton (-0.3%), Hamilton (-0.1%) and Quebec (-0.1%). On the other hand, increases were recorded in 11 of the 20 CMAs not included in the composite index for which data are available in February. The strongest monthly increases were seen in Trois-Rivières (+7.6%), Sudbury (+7.0%) and Barrie (+4.6% after a 7.9% fall the previous month). Conversely, the biggest falls were in Kingston (-8.1% after an increase of 11.7% the previous month) and Kelowna (-3.0%).

Before seasonal adjustments, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™ rose by 0.4% from January to February, the first increase after five consecutive monthly decreases.

Year-Over-Year

The Teranet-National Bank Composite Home Price Index™ rose by 4.5% from February 2023 to February 2024. Increases were observed in all 11 cities making up the composite index in February. Calgary led the way with a 12.1% year-over-year price increase, followed by Halifax with a 10.0% gain and Quebec City with an 8.9% increase. As for the lagging markets, prices rose by less than the average in Edmonton (+1.3%), Victoria (+1.9%), Vancouver (+2.0%) and Montreal (+4.4%). As for the 20 other CMAs not included in the composite index, annual gains were observed in 19 of them. The strongest growth was recorded in Thunder Bay (+22.2%) and Sherbrooke (+16.3%), while the Kingston market (-7.2%) was still in decline.

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Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™  Back on The Rise in February