According to the most recent data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), Canadian home prices as assessed by the seasonally adjusted Aggregate Composite MLS Home Price Index (HPI) were flat on a month-over-month basis in February 2024, capping a run of five declines that began last fall.

Given that prices had decreased 1.3% from December to January, it was notable that they remained unchanged from January to February. Transitions this sharp are quite uncommon due to the consistency of the seasonally adjusted MLS HPI.

Only three other instances in the last 20 years have shown a similar abrupt improvement or increase in the month-over-month percentage change from one month to the next of this magnitude; these instances all occurred at different times throughout the previous four years when demand was starting to pick up.

A portion of the 12.7% rise in activity in December 2023 and January 2024 was lost as home sales activity across Canadian MLS Systems fell 3.1% in January and February 2024. Nevertheless, compared to a calm autumn market in 2023, there has been a general trend of somewhat increased levels of activity during the past three months.

The actual number of transactions—which was not seasonally adjusted—was 19.7% higher than in February 2023. The fact that February 2023 sales were among the lowest for that month in the previous 20 years accounts for a portion of that double-digit improvement, but it also shows that current activity has rebounded to be just around 5% below the 10-year average.

In February, the quantity of newly listed properties increased by 1.6%t month over month. Depending on how many owners are getting ready to market their houses for sale this spring, gains could increase in the months to come.

“It’s looking like February may end up being the last relatively uneventful month of the year as far as the 2024 housing story goes,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. “With so much demand having piled up on the sidelines, the story will likely be less about the exact timing of interest rate cuts and more about how many homes come up for sale this year.”

“After two years of mostly quiet resale housing activity there’s a feeling that things are about to pick up,” said Larry Cerqua, Chair of CREA. “At this point, it’s hard to know whether buyers are going to wait for a signal from the Bank of Canada or whether they’re just waiting for the spring listings to hit the market. Either way, neither of those are likely too far off.”

Spring Thaw? CREA’s February Report Indicates Canadians are Ready to Buy by Livabl