After returning to growth territory in February, the Teranet-National Bank Composite Index™ continued to rise in March, with a small gain of 0.2% on the previous month. This increase in home prices comes at a time when the housing market has regained strength since November, buoyed in particular by exceptional demographic growth, slightly more advantageous fixed mortgage interest rates and the anticipation of policy rate cuts by the Bank of Canada. Although these factors will continue to support the real estate market in the months ahead, we are cautiously optimistic about a significant recovery in the housing market in the coming months and stronger price growth. Indeed, many uncertainties remain, including a potential further deterioration in the labour market for young people, who are facing the worst affordability conditions in decades.

Month-Over-Month

After adjusting for seasonal effects, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™, which covers the country’s eleven largest CMAs, rose by 0.2% from February to March, the second consecutive monthly increase. In March, four of the 11 CMAs included in the index recorded growth: Vancouver (+2.7%), Edmonton (+2.0%), Calgary (+1.8%) and Quebec City (+1.6%). Conversely, there were decreases in Ottawa-Gatineau (-2.0%), Hamilton (-2.0%), Halifax (-1.8%), Winnipeg (-1.4%), Montreal (-0.9%), Toronto (-0.6%) and Victoria (-0.4%). On the other hand, increases were seen in 10 of the 20 CMAs not included in the composite index for which data are available in March. The strongest monthly increases were seen in Kingston (+12.0% after a 6.8% fall the previous month), Moncton (+8.9%), and Lethbridge (+4.0%). Conversely, the biggest falls were in Guelph (-7.6%) and Kitchener (-4.3%).
Before seasonal adjustments, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™ rose by 1.6% from February to March, the second consecutive monthly increase.

Year-Over-Year

The Teranet-National Bank Composite Home Price Index™ rose by 5.6% from March 2023 to March 2024. Increases were observed in all 11 cities making up the composite index in March. Calgary led the way with a 14.3% year-over-year price increase, followed by Quebec City with a 10.9% gain and Toronto with a 6.0% increase. As for the lagging markets, prices rose by less than the average in Ottawa-Gatineau (+2.4%), Hamilton (+2.5%), Winnipeg (+2.7%), Montreal (+3.2%), Edmonton (+4.0%), Victoria (+5.2%) and Vancouver (+5.2%). As for the 20 other CMAs not included in the composite index, annual gains were observed in 19 of them. The strongest growth was recorded in Moncton (+24.5%) and Sudbury (+10.6%), while the Kelowna market (-3.3%) was still down.

Click here to view the full report.

Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™  Continues to Rise in March