The BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) rose 0.3 points to 152.7 in the third quarter of 2025, while the six-month moving average remained unchanged at 152.5. Compared to the same quarter in 2024, the index was up 2.9%.

Third Quarter Highlights :

• The economic activity index rose in Q3 by 0.3 points. Growth in this index was driven by higher inflation-adjusted wholesale trade (2.1%) and manufacturing sales (2.5%), which offset a 1.2% decline in retail sales.

• The overall employment component decreased by 0.2 points in the third quarter. Contraction was driven by lower manufacturing employment (-1.5%), accompanied by marginally lower office employment. Weaknesses in this component are reflective of broader challenges facing the provincial and national labour markets.

• The financial component of the index increased by 0.2 points in the third quarter. Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) prices rose by 2.8%, pushing the component up. Meanwhile, interest rate spreads moderately decreased from the previous quarter, indicating slightly lower levels of perceived short-term risk in the economy as markets continue to absorb trade uncertainties from the United States.

Commercial Leading Indicator November 2025 Shows Steady Commercial Activity in The Third Quarter of 2025 by Amit Sidhu | Economist | BCREA