A wave of downsizing may be building in Canada’s housing market as the population ages, but new research from Remax Canada suggests the shift will be gradual, with many older homeowners staying put due to a lack of suitable options.

The impacts could be far-reaching, new data suggests, as retirement-aged Canadians staying in place could create a logjam, limiting new listings and making it even harder for younger buyers to enter the market.

Statistics Canada data from 2024 shows about 7.74 million Canadians – or 18.9% of the population — are aged 65 and older. That share is projected to rise to nearly 25% by 2030.

While this shift may not create a sudden surge in listings, it has the potential to affect the types of homes coming to market for younger buyers to choose from.

“While downsizing won’t happen all at once, the direction is clear,” says Don Kottick, president of Remax Canada. “Canada’s aging population will undoubtedly shift demand and availability of housing over time, but progress will depend on improving access to housing that meets seniors’ needs.”

Supply Constraints Keeping Homeowners in Place

The survey highlights a key issue: a lack of places to go for those considering making a move.

About 49% of Canadians report low availability of downsizing housing in their communities, while another 8% say there are no options at all. Among those aged 65 and older, the challenge is even more pronounced, with 65% reporting low or no availability.

As a result, relatively few Canadians say they plan to downsize in the near term. Just 10% expect to move to a smaller home within the next decade. That figure rises to 16% among seniors, while nearly half – 46% – say they plan to stay where they are.

Even among those considering a move sooner rather than later, many have doubts. The survey found 73% are concerned about their downsizing options, including 32% who say they are very concerned.

“We’re seeing many homeowners who would consider downsizing, but they’re struggling to find suitable options in their communities,” says Kottick. “Without sufficient inventory to support these transitions, many are choosing to stay in their homes longer, which limits movement of younger buyers across the market.

Impact on Market Depends on Supply

Kottick emphasises that this dynamic is keeping the housing market locked in a standstill.

“Downsizing is an important factor in the natural churn of the housing market, and headway will depend on improving access to appropriate housing options for older Canadians,” he said. “Without it, our research indicates that many homeowners may delay or abandon their moving plans entirely, further constraining the flow of inventory into the market.”

The report suggests Canadians are mixed on the benefit younger buyers would see from the older population putting their homes on the market. About 34% of Canadians believe increased downsizing among older homeowners would make it easier for younger buyers to enter the market. Meanwhile, 26% think it would make it harder, and 29% expect little impact.

At the same time, demand from younger Canadians is expected to remain steady. The survey found 23% of those aged 18 to 34 plan to purchase their first home within the next decade.

The study was conducted by Remax Canada between March 30 and April 1 among a representative sample of 1,507 adult Canadians who are members of the Angus Reid Forum.

Remax Canada : 65% of Canadians 65+ Report Low or No Downsizing Options by Courtney Zwicker | REM Real Estate Magazine