The Teranet-National Bank Composite Index continued to decline in March for the fourth consecutive month, and the decline even accelerated, with property prices falling by 1.0% between February and March, compared with a 0.6% drop the previous month. As a result, prices have fallen by 2.3% over the past four months and by 5.0% year-over-year. Furthermore, 55% of all markets tracked by our price indices in March were down 10% or more from their peak. Although this proportion is lower than what was recorded in 2022, it remains very high by historical standards, especially given the current environment of more accommodative interest rates. The continued price decline in March comes as the number of transactions in the resale market remains particularly low, despite stabilization in sales during the month. In fact, the ratio of transactions per household nationwide was 26% below its historical average. It is also worth noting that the price decline over the past year was nearly as significant for condos (-5.6%) as it was for single-family homes (-4.9%), illustrating the widespread weakness of the Canadian residential market. There is no doubt that several factors continue to weigh on the real estate sector, including demographic decline, the weak labour market since the start of the year, and trade uncertainty—to which geopolitical uncertainty has now been added. The conflict in the Middle East has even had repercussions on the Canadian real estate market, with mortgage rates rising in March as bond yields climbed due to higher inflation anticipated by the markets. Against this backdrop, we expect prices to continue their downward trend in the coming months, assuming there is no positive turnaround in trade tensions with the United States.

Month-Over-Month

The Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™, which covers the country’s eleven largest CMAs, fell by 1.0% from February to March, marking a fourth consecutive monthly decline (seasonally adjusted). In March, eight of the 11 CMAs included in the index recorded declines: Halifax (-3.5%), Vancouver (-2.2%), Toronto (-1.9%), Victoria (-1.0%), Ottawa-Gatineau (-1.0%), Edmonton (-0.8%), Calgary (-0.6%), and Hamilton (-0.6%). Conversely, prices rose in Winnipeg (+8.5%), Montreal (+1.7%), and Quebec City (+1.5%). Additionally, declines were observed in 12 of the 20 CMAs not included in the composite index for which data were available in March. The sharpest monthly declines were recorded in Kelowna (-7.3% after +5.2% the previous month), Moncton (-4.8%), Kingston (-4.5%), and Thunder Bay (-4.3% after +6.6% the previous month). Conversely, the largest increases were observed in Saint John (+14.7% after -7.8% the previous month), Sudbury (+8.4%), and Brantford (+7.3% after -6.4% the previous month).

Before seasonal adjustments, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™ rose 0.3% from February to March, marking the first increase in nine months.

Year-Over-Year

The Teranet-National Bank Composite Home Price Index™ fell by 5.0% between March 2025 and March 2026, a steeper decline than the 4.4% drop recorded the previous month. Declines were recorded in six of the 11 cities that make up the composite index in March. Toronto led the way with a 9.5% year-over-year price decline, followed by Hamilton (-9.1%) and Vancouver (-7.8%). Conversely, the sharpest increases were observed in Quebec City (+13.5%), Winnipeg (+9.4%), and Montreal (+5.5%). Among the 20 other CMAs not included in the composite index, 15 posted annual declines.

Among the declining markets, the sharpest decreases were recorded in London (-8.3%), Oshawa (-8.1%), and Kitchener (-8.0%). Conversely, the strongest increases were observed in Sudbury (+12.2%), Saint John (+11.0%), and Thunder Bay (+9.9%).

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Teranet-National Bank House Price Index™ Falls for A Fourth Consecutive Month by Daren King | Economist | National Bank of Canada