The Lower Mainland housing market showed signs of life at the end of the summer, but the transition to fall remains subdued.

The latest MLS data for the region spanning Metro Vancouver through Abbotsford-Mission showed 2,741 sales in August. The 3.6% year-over-year decline was an improvement from the 9.2% drop in July, and we calculate a seasonally adjusted increase of 6.6%. Year-to-date sales remain below 2025’s weak pace, while August sales were about 25% below the 10-year same-month average.

Prices were relatively stable. The average value reached $1.129 million, 2.3% lower than a year ago and unchanged from July on a seasonally adjusted basis. Composite indices, which control for unit type, geography and other quality factors showed a deeper year-over-year decline of nearly 6% and slight drop from July. While average prices fluctuate, the underlying pattern continues to erode. The composite measure is down about 17% from its 2022 peak with a downward trend since early 2025.

While sales have risen, conditions remain in a buyers’ market. An uptick in new listings limited downward pressure on active listings flat from July, and down 5.7% year-over-year. Buyers retain the upper hand with a sales-to-active listings ratio of 11.5%. Nearly 24,000 active listings and elevated unabsorbed new-home units mean buyers can remain patient for better deals.

A lack of newcomers, particularly temporary residents, points to little competition on the demand side.

Going forward, demand is likely to remain subdued. Renewed uncertainty from US tariffs will test the economy and labour market, particularly in BC, while elevated bond yields will keep borrowing costs high. Sales remain historically low and given strong equity market gains and a steady labour market, we think pent-up demand is waiting on the sidelines. Excess inventory will whittle down quickly once sentiment improves, while a lack of new condominium projects in the construction pipeline will create greater pricing pressure once demand picks up.

BC goods exports pulled back 13.6% move-over-month in July to under $5 billion, reversing a June increase. Despite the drop, volumes remain above the 2026 monthly average of about $4.8 billion. The decline was largely attributed to lower metal ore and non-metallic mineral products, which fell 48.1%.

Imports rose 16% to just under $8 billion, the largest monthly volume this year, partly due to a 4% month-over-month increase in electronic and electrical equipment and parts and a 191.1% rise in metal ores and non-metallic minerals.

Compared with July 2025, exports rose 8.5%, while imports increased 21.8%. Metal ores and non-metallic minerals led the increase, rising 44.7% (+$206 million) to $669 million. Metal and non-metallic mineral products also rose 52.4% (+$138 million) to $394 million. Forestry products saw exports decline 14.8% year-over-year (-$147 million) to $848 million.

Year-to-date, only six of the 11 major product categories have recorded higher exports. Forestry exports are down 18.2% (-$1.3 billion), while electronic and electrical equipment exports have fallen 9.6% (-$212 million). Exports of metal ores and non-metallic minerals have surged 69.3% (+$2.4 billion) while metal and non-metallic mineral products are up 16.1% (+$386 million).

BC’s exports to the United States fell 5.1% month-over-month to over $2.5 billion. The US accounted for 47.8% of BC’s total exports, compared with 51% a year earlier. China’s share increased to 21.8% from 19.8% last year.

Lower Mainland Housing Market Gains Ground as BC Exports Retreat by Bryan Yu | Chief Economist | Central 1 | BIV