The housing market in British Columbia has strengthened throughout 2015, and while the final numbers for the year are not yet in, the Canadian Real Estate Association has revised its forecast upward for the province.

Prices in BC will have increased 11.5% by the end of the year compared with last year, according to the CREA. This is up three percentage points from September’s forecast of 8.5%. The average price will reach $633,800, and the province will continue to be the only one in Canada to exceed the national average increase of 8.4%, with the average price reaching $442,600 across the country.

“The upward revision reflects average price gains in British Columbia and Ontario together with a projected increase in their proportion of national sales,” the CREA said in a press release.

In 2016, BC will see a further 2.1% increase to $646,900; this will be the second-highest growth rate in the country, after Ontario (2.9%).

Sales activity in BC will have increased 21.4% over 2015, with an expected 102,000 units changing hands. This is expected to slow somewhat in 2016; the number of units sold is forecast to decrease 3% to 98,900 units. Meanwhile, the number of units sold across Canada will dip 1.1% to 498,600, “as activity in B.C. and Ontario moderates and housing market conditions soften in Alberta.”

“Recently announced changes to mortgage regulations that take effect early next year risk, cooling housing markets beyond Greater Vancouver and the GTA, their intended targets,” the CREA said.

In response to the mortgage changes announced December 11 , Blueshore Financial Credit Union CEO Chris Catliff said the increased minimum downpayment for homes over $500,000 will have an effect on the “non-high-end” real estate market, but the luxury market, driven by foreign buyers, is less likely to see an impact.

CREA : BC Home Prices Grew More Than 11% Over 2015 by Emma Crawford Hampel | Business in Vancouver