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CMHC Warns Housing Prices Overheated in 9 Canadian Markets, with Vancouver at High Risk


Under Market Updates

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July 29th, 2016

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. says prices are overvalued in 60% of the top 15 centres it surveys across the country.

In what the Crown corporation calls its Housing Market Assessment Survey, released Wednesday, it said overall evidence of problematic conditions in the housing market for the country as a whole has been bumped up from weak to moderate — with Vancouver singled out for “high” evidence of problematic conditions in its market.

“With our last assessment, the one we published in April, we actually said we saw strong evidence of problematic overvaluation,” said Bob Dugan chief economist with CMHC, referring to Vancouver which was said at that time to have moderate evidence of problematic conditions as opposed to the strong evidence today. “We have definitely had our eye on that market.”

The agency defines evidence of problematic conditions as imbalances in the housing market. CMHC says those imbalances can occur when overbuilding, overvaluation, overheating and price acceleration, or combinations of those factors, move away from historical averages.

In its report, CMHC says there has been sustained, high levels of sales with minimal increases in supply in Vancouver, now Canada’s most expensive city to purchase a home, with the average detached home selling for $1.56 million in the metro region last month.

The Crown corporation said it has been waiting for a couple of quarters to make any major judgement on the Vancouver market, but what has tipped the scales is the multi-family sector, both town homes and apartments, that have moved into overheated conditions in terms of the ratio of sales to new listings. Price acceleration has also been a factor.

This week the British Columbia government made a move to attempt to slow down its largest market by imposing a 15 per cent additional property tax on foreign investors buying in Metro Vancouver, something it hopes will improve affordability.

Dugan says it’s too early for his organization, which advises the federal government on housing policy, to offer an opinion on what impact the move will have.

“We haven’t had time to update any forecast or anything to take this into account. You can only speculate and we don’t want to do that. There are a lot of unknowns,” he said. “A lot of foreign investors invest in Canada and do so, anecdotally I have heard, despite what we in Canada see as an expensive (market). Vancouver looks pretty cheap. Is (the tax) enough to affect demand?”

For Canada overall there is strong evidence of overvaluation, though CMHC emphasizes that real estate markets are inherently local. The Crown corporation does say price acceleration is spreading in the communities it analyzed that neighbour Toronto and Vancouver.

CMHC sees its HMA as an early warning system for Canadians and the real estate industry to address concerns about the market, which it says promotes stability.

While Vancouver has been added to cities with strong evidence of “problematic conditions,” CMHC says they still exist in Toronto, Calgary, Saskatoon and Regina.

“In Toronto and Vancouver, this is due to the combination of price acceleration and overvaluation. In Calgary, Saskatoon and Regina, this is due to the combination of overvaluation and overbuilding,” CMHC said.

CMHC also said it sees “moderate evidence” of problematic conditions in Edmonton, Winnipeg, Hamilton, Montreal and Quebec City.

One city getting a downgrade was Ottawa, where the Crown corporation says the evidence of problematic conditions dropped from moderate to weak.

CMHC Warns Housing Prices Overheated in 9 Canadian Markets, with Vancouver at High Risk by Garry Marr | Financial Post

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