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Canada’s Housing Market Balance Have Finally Turned A Corner


Under Market Updates

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May 26th, 2021

The pandemic-driven home sales collapse that happened last spring means annual gains this April look absolutely eye-popping by comparison.

But despite the 256 percent increase in home sales and 42 percent annual rise in prices, Canada’s housing market actually cooled down last month, according to new data published by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) today.

Over 60,000 homes changed hands last month, the highest total for any April on record. In commentary that accompanied the data, CREA said that the 256 percent increase in sales reflects the huge gap between 2021’s best-ever April and 2020’s worst-ever April for transactions.

On a monthly basis, April sales activity was down 12.5 percent from March, with declines seen in the vast majority of local markets monitored by CREA.

CREA’s Senior Economist Shaun Cathcart said the outsize annual gain recorded in April was an example of “base effect.”

“In the case of the April 2021 housing numbers, the year-over-year is a comparison to the worst numbers ever published in April of last year, while the month-over-month relationship is to the strongest numbers ever published in March 2021,” wrote Cathcart.

“The result is that a relatively more ‘reasonable’ set of numbers in April 2021 looks both way up or way down depending on what crazy part of the last year you compare them to, but the correct interpretation of those big numbers is that the April housing numbers came in somewhere in between those extremes, which is a good thing,” he continued.

The economist went on to say that some important measures of market balance have finally turned a corner and previously head-spinning monthly price gains are beginning to slow.

“I believe we’ve all wanted to see the temperature turned down on this market after the last year and it looks as though that is finally happening,” Cathcart added.

On the pricing side, the MLS Home Price Index climbed 2.4 percent on a monthly basis in April, still a record gain, but a deceleration from the increases observed in recent months.

The national average price came in just shy of $696,000, up nearly 42 percent from a year ago. In its media release, CREA was quick to point out that a 10 percent monthly decline in the national average price was recorded in April 2020 as high-end buyers kept to the sidelines in the early days of the pandemic.

CREA : Despite 256% Jump in Sales, Canada’s Housing Market Actually Cooled Down in April by Sean MacKay | Livabl

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