Home sales in British Columbia are forecast to have dropped almost 35% from their peak by the end of this year, says the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA).

In 2023, sales are forecast to fall an additional 11.4%.

The prediction comes after home sales in the province reached a record high in 2021, only to drop off a cliff in the second half of 2022.

“The factors that drove unprecedented housing market activity over the past two years, including record low mortgage rates, buyer preference for extra space and the ability to work remotely are now unwinding,” BCREA chief economist Brendon Ogmundson said. “As a result, there has been a significant shift in the housing market, which we anticipate will continue through 2023.”

Continued high interest rates and rising inflation paint a gloomy picture for Canada’s economy in 2023. As a result, market activity is anticipated to fall even further below normal levels.

This year, BC saw slow sales activity on the market that led to an increase in inventory. Normally increased inventory means lower prices, but the numbers seen now are coming out of a record low, so there’s not enough supply to create substantial downward pressure on prices just yet.

However, it’s not all bad news – especially if you’re a buyer on a budget waiting for the right time to get in.

Housing prices across the province are still lower than they were at their peak earlier this year, so even flat prices from the current levels mean west coast residents can expect to see a minimum 5% drop in the median home price in 2023.

BCREA : High Rates, Slow Economy & Even Slower Home Sales Predicted for 2023 by Cassie Apperloo | Livabl